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Economy Booming, Says Numbers
"The recovery is on track", they'll say, if they haven't already.
The market easily cleared the fir
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“It’s the highest reading since November of 2018, and helps make the case that the world’s largest economy wasn’t waylaid anew by rising infections and congressional bickering over the summer.“….. It seems I remember something horrible happening to the markets , the last couple months of 2018….
Well here’s a disturbing proposition… since the bottom 50% have close to zero net wealth on average… maybe if 40% unemployment continues… it literally has no practical effect on the economy writ large. Maybe everyone driving the economy by consuming is essentially in the top 50% and with a shortage of food and affordable housing the impact will not be felt until that 40% runs out of unemployment and savings completely. At which time things go from boom to extremely unpredictable on the negative side as millions of people are out of options and out of time.
The stimulus from mortgage forbearance is perhaps a big underdiscussed economic tailwind. Of course, the politicians made the “oversight” of not forcing this down the cash flow stream to a rent forbearance. This would seem to heavily favor a Trump resurgence in the polls, with renters more likely to be in urban areas. The reality that those spending these extra cash flows will, eventually, be under water may not have set in yet.