With some lawmakers in Washington seemingly unconvinced that the economic situation facing Main Street is acute enough to warrant another $2.4 trillion in virus relief spending (the price tag is a reference to the compromise deal Democrats offered Steve Mnuchin and Mark Meadows), economists warn that fiscal failure risks oblivion for many small businesses and everyday Americans.
Although most economic indicators continue to reflect the rebound from the March/April collapse, some higher-frequency data suggests the recovery is losing momentum. For example, US jobless claims recently jumped back above 1 million, snapping a two-week streak of declines.
On Thursday, just ahead of Jerome Powell’s hotly-anticipated remarks at this year’s virtual Jackson Hole symposium, the latest data showed 1,006,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week. That was in-line with market expectations.
Last week’s total was revised down to 1,104,000. The four-week moving average fell to 1,068,000.
With stimulus talks still deadlocked and Donald Trump’s executive order extending extra federal unemployment assistance offering little more than a short-term Band-Aid, the weekly claims data is one of the few “official” real-time economic indicators at the market’s disposal.
Trump’s order diverted funds from disaster relief, a questionable decision ahead of what’s expected to be one of the most active hurricane seasons on record. Hurricane Laura made landfall in Louisiana early Thursday as a Cat 4 storm.
Continuing claims in the week ending August 15 were 14,535,000, down 223,000. That was slightly more than the 14.4 million economists were looking for.
Total claimants fell by 1,042,323 in the week ending August 8, to 27,017,232.
At the margins, this should increase the sense of urgency inside the Beltway, but that’s become a somewhat generic assessment. Republicans have shown a willingness to consider so-called “skinny” bills that would provide relatively scant funds for the postal service along with some other funding on which there’s bipartisan agreement, and there’s talk of attaching such a bill to a CR funding the government past September. But Democrats have little interest in what they call “piecemeal” legislation that doesn’t address the myriad issues facing the economy during the worst downturn in modern history.
At the Republican National Convention this week, speakers generally attempted to paint a rosy picture despite the objectively dire economic straits many Americans currently face.
Thursday’s claims data won’t do much to reinforce that dubious narrative. Last weekend, Goldman projected that around 25% of “temporary” job losses would eventually become permanent in the coronavirus recession.
Read more: 25% Of ‘Temporarily’ Laid Off Americans Will Become Permanently Jobless, Goldman Says
I think dithering might just be over as I watch current events unfold almost as if the “hand of god” were at work.
Trump depletes FEMA fund.
Two hurricanes make landfall with a Cat 4 landing almost square on Vidor (unofficial KKK capitol)
Now red Texas and Red Louisiana are faced with a reverse Sandy moment asking east coast to provide more FEMA funds.
Pelosi’ laugh can be heard around the world, “You want more money?”
Republicans and the weather. Covid not acting like the flu and fading with the heat. Global warming giving tropical weather an acceleration.
Main street gets Austrian economics.
Wall street gets crony capitalism.
Correction: Wall Street gets modern socialism.
I believe Human advances occur during non-zero sum.
Correction 2= Wall Street gets MMT
In this political environment and a zero sum point of view it may well be crony capitalism. Might be time for some tariff money to spread to the base.
I can see Nancy lyin’ back in her satin dress
In a room where ya do what ya don’t confess
Sundown Town you better take care
If I find you been creepin’ ’round my back stairs
Sundown Town ya better take care
If I find you been creepin’ ’round my back stairs
She’s been lookin’ like a queen in a sailor’s dream
And she don’t always say what she really means
Sometimes I think it’s a shame
When I get feelin’ better when I’m feelin’ no pain
Sometimes I think it’s a shame
When I get feelin’ better when I’m feelin’ no pain
I can picture every move that a man could make
Getting lost in Donnie’s lovin’ is your first mistake
Sundown you better take care
If I find you been creepin’ ’round my back stairs
Sometimes I think it’s a sin
When I feel like I’m winnin’ when I’m losin’ again
Congress using power of the purse to make Americans miserable just in time for election. That bodes poorly for all incumbents facing re-election