Market (Quietly) Pivots Back To Lockdown Trades, As Kudlow Says ‘No Second Wave Coming’
"There is no second wave coming. It’s just hot spots", Larry Kudlow told CNBC Monday, parroting the party line, even as virus cases rise across the country.
"They send in CDC teams, we’ve got the testing procedures, we’ve got the diagnostics, we’ve got the PPE", Kudlow continued. "And so I really think it’s a pretty good situation".
It's really not -- a "good situation", that is. There's nothing "good" about an epidemic that's killed 120,000 Americans in the space of three(ish) month
The chart of Covid cases in Europe as a whole (and not just the US/Italy chart) is looking pretty good for Europe. (As do the charts for S. Korea, Taiwan, well, you get the picture.) The continued health impacts of the virus in the US is a self-inflicted wound. Other countries figured it out. We couldn’t. Boost liquidity. Bid up SPY/QQQ/DIA/RUT.
The narratives on what the stock market is going to do day to day, and why it did something today, or is going to do something this afternoon, are sad. All the opinions, the reasons, the interpretations, rotations, rotations that stopped, bad data is good data, bad data is better than bad data. It’s all a waste of digital ink. Reading entrails is next.
In the current climate it is impossible for anyone to make the utilitarian argument to prioritize the economy over human life even when it can be shown that in the long run GDP outcomes impact on outcomes, death, health, welfare, food insecurity would seem to be an issue that gets drowned out if you can paint a politician as being insensitive. There is no judgment here, just making an observation that everything is getting viewed through a political lens.
“entertainment, athletic contests [and] things of that sort”.
They could call it ‘Strength Through Joy”
Last year, the flu vaccine was only about 45% effective – which was more effective than the flu vaccine was for 2018/19. Waiting for a perfect vaccine is going to be a long, long wait.
As difficult as it is to “reopen”, I think we have no choice. The people of the US, businesses and the government have a shared responsibility to navigate this crisis to the best possible outcome- which is balancing saving lives with moving forward with life ( this is not just about GDP). The best path forward is probably not at either end of that spectrum.
The best way to achieve this is through making both testing and factual information about the virus readily available. There is a basic human instinct to survive, which will influence government, business, and individuals decisions regarding the best path forward.
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/932671?src=mkm_covid_update_200619_mscpedit_&uac=366286FZ&impID=2427306&faf=1
COVID-19 Antibodies Can Disappear After 2-3 Months, Study Shows
Without facts, intelligent and honest decision makers the best way forward can’t be found. Our system of government is structured for continued rolling failure. We’ve become a 3 wheeled cart trying to cross the Sierras through the Donner pass before the winter comes with plan B being cannabalism.
Well I am happy to note I am not one of your ‘friends’ you invite over to dinner.
Are they building a coliseum in Washington to hold the games in???