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The Rally’s Next Hurdle: A Wave Of ‘Second Wave’ Coverage
Florida reported a 3.6% rise in COVID-19 cases on Saturday, underscoring fears that between increased testing and the (possibly haphazard) resumption of "business as usual" across the country, the virus is poised to make a comeback in some locales.
While it's far from clear that one can attribute the worst week for US equities since March to an uptick in infection rates, rising case totals in some parts of the country certainly didn't help, and there's a very real sense in which the likes of St
From where I’m sitting this is still the first wave. Good luck all.
BTW, some of these machines are programmed to react in micro seconds to any given news item. We’ve seen it over and over, especially in melt-ups, when the markets have moved on nothing less than fake news.
The big surprise ahead will be when the economy has “reopened” and people start to realize the recession persists.
Can infections be locally managed?
Perhaps! But what happens when the infected travel?
The science and existing data is clear: we have no vaccine and we do not have effective treatments.
We can reduce the R0 factor (social distancing, masks, etc) and reduce the death toll (at-risk populations staying isolated, prepared medical centers, etc) but a lot more people (100k?) are going to die in the next 6 months.
The “market” (including some very intelligent people in finance) do not want to factor in bankruptcies, unemployment (including high wage “white collar” jobs and salary cuts), and obviously less GDP (hello oil, tourism, travel, etc)
I cannot stay solvent longer than the market can stay irrational but when these facts become personal, when WallStreet lose loved ones and friends (rather than just “.1% of the US population”) and it’s their family/friends in bankruptcy/unemployed/lost wages then we’ll see a correction.
Hopefully just a “smart recalibration” that pushes Congress to help people (rather than corporations).
Thank god and genetics this thing is mutating slowly. It seems some scientists are describing an increase with the outer spikes that may enable it to infect more aggressively. I live in Suffolk county NY and we are coming out of lockdown…YEAH!!!! Some people are anti-mask…OK or not, here they come. In my career I wore various facepieces and masks and got away without it often but sometimes I paid physically for it. Now that they are plentiful I would think MYSELF a fool for not wearing one. I agree with Albert Camus’ Plague… My dying is one thing, my causing a loved ones death unbearable.
I am positively impressed with the data based approach to this analysis.
Many excellent comments, thanks to all.