“China has no intention to change the US, nor to replace the US”, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Sunday, during a briefing at the National People’s Congress. “It is also wishful thinking for the US to change China”, he cautioned.
His remarks were the usual mix of caustic realism and propaganda. Remember, propaganda is a dish best served with side dishes of truth. Commingling facts with misinformation is an extremely effective way to legitimize the overall narrative.
“Some US political forces are taking China-US relations hostage, attempting to push the ties to the brink of a so-called ‘new Cold War’,” Wang went on to charge. “This is dangerous and will endanger global peace”.
Wang also accused some US politicians of “making up lies” and promoting “conspiracy theories”, and said anyone who expects Beijing to pay “reparations” for the virus is “daydreaming”.
Most of that is true. But, the Party is clearly not blameless – in anything. It is unabashedly undemocratic and irrespective of the violent tactics employed by some protesters in Hong Kong, the fact remains that Beijing is fearful of democracy and writing mainland national security protocols into the city’s laws is an overt effort to roll back democratic freedoms. To assess the situation any differently is to be deliberately obtuse.
As expected, protests flared anew in Hong Kong on Sunday. Demonstrators expressed extreme displeasure with Xi’s power grab in the city and protesters were met with tear gas and a water cannon. More than 100 were ultimately arrested.
“We must stand up and fight, and let Beijing know that we will never surrender”, Joshua Wong, a prominent protest leader declared. “We would describe [the national security law] as the beginning of the end”.
In a preview of things to come, they were deemed “rioters” by police, who claimed authorities felt threatened by umbrellas, water bottles and “other objects” tossed about in the melee.
Demonstrators chanted “Hong Kong independence, the only way out”.
“I am worried that after the implementation of the national security law, they will go after those being charged before and the police will be further out of control”, a 16-year-old named Twinnie told Reuters. “I am afraid of being arrested but I still need to come out and protest for the future of Hong Kong”.
Later this week, Hong Kong is set to debate a law that punishes disrespect for the national anthem. Donald Trump would be proud.
China’s Wang said the new legislation and subsequent changes to Hong Kong’s laws will make the city a safer place.
That much is probably true, depending on what kind of “safety” you’re talking about.
He went on to contend that the new national security protocols will only target a “narrow” set of actions, won’t impact the city’s freedoms or rights, and won’t endanger the interests of foreign firms.
Nobody believes that. Wang included.
China (1.4 billion) can swallow Hong Kong (7.5 million) almost overnight, which they will do for 3 reasons-
Keep the 1.4 billion mainland people from getting any ideas that they are entitled to even dream about democracy
Replace the global financial center with Beijing, which they will have 100% control over
Foreshadow to the world their intention toward Taiwan (24 million).
This is pretty much spot-on. And I’m not sure why it’s lost on so many people, experts included. This really isn’t that complicated of an issue as far as geopolitical powder kegs go
Yup and what comes after Taiwan? A couple Island nations maybe? South China Sea neighbors? China is in the perfect position to do a couple Crimeas. Without the US having their back 100% the whole region could be China very quickly.
Calh, in that vein, Trump is their great friend. He is a wonderful bad boy they can hold up how as to how good they are. In addition his reluctance to partner with anyone and walk out on allies in the field, means he will have no one’s back said his own.
One city that you are already sovereign over and a couple of unpopulated rocks in the middle of the ocean is very far removed from conquering Southeast Asia. This isn’t December 1941 anymore. Vietnam has 94 million people. The Philippines has 106 million people. Indonesia has 267 million people. These are real governments with real militaries, a strong sense of nationhood, and no desire to be swallowed by China. They are not Crimea, which was only transferred from Russia to the Ukraine when both were mere administrative units within a unitary Soviet state. Crimea is ethnically Russian and loosely bound to a corrupt and weak Ukraine.
With tremendous effort, China probably could defeat Taiwan. The United States would not lift a finger to help because the American military isn’t built to fight peer competitors; just like the United States turned its back on its security guarantee to Ukraine. It is built as a welfare program for defense contractors and maybe once a decade destroy a Grenada here or a Panama there. Bombing wedding parties and funerals is more their jam. They cannot beat Iraqis in pickup trucks or Afghan tribesmen in caves. They cannot possibly beat anybody who can conceivably fight back.
Happy Memorial Day.
We took our 3 kids to Hong Kong about 12 years ago- glad we did that because it would not be as much fun now as it was then.
What a big loss to the world.
Taiwan is not remotely comparable to Hong Kong. For one, Taiwan has a de facto independent government, a thriving economy, and a (comparatively) powerful military. And that is without considering the almost forgone nature of American intervention in case of overt Chinese aggression against Taiwan.
In fact, the heavy-handed ‘solution’ that Beijing has come up with to its Hong Kong dilemma has removed any chance of peaceful reunification with Taiwan for the foreseeable future. At the same time the possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is so remote as to be fully discountable. Beijing’s tough talk on Taiwan is primarily designed to serve as a sword of Damocles over the Taiwanese government to forestall any move by it to proclaim Taiwan a fully sovereign state. Beijing can and will live with Taiwan maintaining its existing status.
As to the comments below speculating about Chinese aggression, please think rationally. The CCP has invested heavily in making China an integral part of the global economy. Why would the party endanger such progress through expansionist aggression with uncertain returns? China is more likely to continue co-opting countries through loans and expanded economic ties as it is already doing.
The CCP dealt with its Hong Kong ‘problem’ because with growing tensions with the United States its cost-benefit calculus has changed.
Will Singapore be the next financial center?
Singapore already is a major financial center. Whether it gains additional prominence likely depends on its leaders’ interest in replacing Hong Kong as a gateway to China.
In Geopolitics the build up to events is slow but the Crescendo can be dramatic and sudden……lookout folks !!!
I’ve been wondering what responses we can expect from China to the escalation of adverse-China policies the US has ramped up. If China respond with restrictions on sales of rare earth’s, could they do that without shooting themselves in the proverbial foot?
The same question pertains to responding with selling their reserves of US treasuries. Or de-valuing the yuan? Tariffs? All possible responses seem fraught with negative consequences, even in the best of circumstances.
Bottomline: there will be a response. I’ve no idea what’s the best call.
Brazilian and Indonesia agricultural season and productivity will be guides. Divide and Conquer, we divide now the Pacific is up for grabs. The Chinese are making quite a show of it in Europe also. Italy and a Chinese partnership may be what is inspiring Germany.