“Small businesses are living through the coronavirus pandemic right now and it’s hard to say what the severity of the disruption will be, but we do know they’re feeling the urgency”, the NFIB said Tuesday, in the color accompanying the latest read on the small business optimism index.
The gauge registered a record drop in March, diving 8.1 points. That’s the most in monthly data dating back to 1986.
“Small business owners are bracing themselves for a significant reduction in consumer spending and future orders”, the NFIB warned, noting that surveys conducted last month showed 92% of small employers have suffered a negative impact from the epidemic.
The index components show broad declines, with employment plans and sales expectations deteriorating markedly. “Hiring plans had a significant drop from February —a signal of a strong downturn in future month”, the NFIB remarked. Inventory trends reflect worries of lackluster demand going forward.
It was, the NFIB laments, an “abrupt turn” that ended a historic 39-month run. That nine of the 10 Index components declined is clear “evidence that economic disruptions are escalating on Main Street as small businesses struggle to keep their doors open”, the survey says.
The Trump administration has been struggling to roll out a $349 billion small business lending plan, a frantic push that found Steve Mnuchin relaxing many due diligence requirements in order to speed the process last week.
After a rocky start on Friday, things are proceeding, but it’s already clear the funds won’t be enough.
“Days after the launch of a $349 billion emergency small-business lending program, some of the country’s biggest banks say they have already allocated more than 10% of the fund, raising concerns there won’t be enough money for the millions of companies expected to apply”, The Washington Post wrote Monday. Here’s a bit more:
Bank of America, alone among the big banks to begin processing applications Friday, said Monday it received 178,000 applications from small businesses seeking $32.9 billion in loans. Wells Fargo never formally started taking applications, but by Monday morning said that so many people had expressed preliminary interest that it had already reached the $10 billion cap it had set for loans under the program.
Pressure on the program is expected to build later this week, when it will open to millions of independent contractors, including gig economy workers such as Uber drivers. The “program will run out of cash next week,” Jaret Seiberg, financial services analyst at Cowen Washington Research Group, said in a research note.
Demand for the program also is expected to increase dramatically after the Small Business Administration said Monday that faith-based organizations would be eligible for loans. “Faith-based organizations have always provided critical social services for people in need, and SBA will make clear that these organizations may access this emergency capital,” SBA Administrator Jovita Carranza said.
Surveys conducted by NFIB last month showed that just half of small employers expressed confidence in their ability to survive for more than two months in the current environment.
“Almost all small employers are now impacted by economic disruptions related to COVID-19. Only 5% of small businesses are not currently affected by the outbreak”, the NFIB said on April 2, adding that “many small business owners are anxious to access financial support through the new small business loan program to help alleviate some of the financial pressures”.
NFIB Chief Economist William Dunkelberg had a simple message on Tuesday: “It is vital that these businesses have access to federal funds that are made available through the CARES Act to keep the doors open on Main Street”.
During Monday afternoon’s virus briefing, Donald Trump admitted that more funds will likely be necessary.
“I think it’s done very well”, the president ventured. “[But] we’re probably going to have to add more money to this to save and to keep our small businesses going and to keep the employees of those small businesses working”.
Trump is just like Anthony, the six year old boy who is the central character, in “It’s a Good Life” of the American television series The Twilight Zone.
Six-year-old Donald Trump has godlike mental powers, including mind-reading. He has isolated his town of Peaksville, Ohio from the rest of the universe. The people must thus grow their own food, and supplies of common household items, such as antiseptic soap, have been dwindling.
He has blocked television signals and caused cars not to work. He creates horrible creatures, such as three-headed gophers, which he then kills. Everybody is under his rule, even his parents. The people live in fear of him, constantly telling him how everything he does is “good,” since he banishes anyone thinking unhappy thoughts into the otherworldly cornfield from which there is no return.
Never having experienced any form of discipline, Donald does not even understand that his actions are wrong, and is confused when his father tells him that the neighbors are reluctant to let their children play with him after he sent several of his playmates to the cornfield.
Every day of the week, Trump gives the townsfolk one hour of television, which he calls press briefings, that Trump creates and projects onto the family TV set. The adults gather around in the Fremonts’ living room, squirming uncomfortably as Trump shows them a vision of screaming dinosaurs, engaged in a gory battle. Unable to voice their real feelings, they tell Trump that it was far better than what used to be on TV.
After the program is over, the adults celebrate Dan Hollis’ birthday. He gets two presents from his wife:
a bottle of brandy (which is one of only five bottles of liquor left in the village) and a Perry Como record. Dan is eager to listen to the record, but he’s reminded by everyone that Trump does not like singing. Getting drunk from the brandy, he starts complaining about the miserable state of the town, not listening to the record, and no one singing “Happy Birthday” to him.
Dan snaps and confronts Trump, calling him a monster and a murderer. While Trump’s anger grows, Dan yells for someone to attack Trump from behind and end his reign of terror. Aunt Amy (who isn’t able to sing anymore because of Trump) tentatively reaches for a fireplace poker, but no one has the courage to act. Trump transforms Dan into a jack-in-the-box, causing his wife to break down. The adults are horrified at what Trump has done, and Fred, his father, asks him to wish Dan into the cornfield, which Trump does.
Trump then causes snow to begin falling outside. The snow will kill off at least half the crops and the town will face starvation. Donald’s father starts to rebuke him about this, but his wife and the other adults look on with worried smiles on their faces. Fred then smiles and tells Trump in a terrified voice,
“…But it’s good you’re making it snow, Donald. A real good thing. And tomorrow… tomorrow’s gonna be a… real good day!“
Not sure about that. . . DJT is more like Mike TV –he is disconnected from the “real” world, perception on TV is all that matters and so the narrow myopia of “winning the news cycle” is what drives him. He will sign whatever Nancy and Mitch put under his nose. More concerning is that his “administration” is in charge of logistics, resources and supply chain management –and notice how he is grousing about being a “shipping clerk” –well, yes governing is a rather quotidian exercise in mundane task that in times like these are of life and death consequence. It would be good if someone in the federal government knew how many ventilators were in inventory, what the needs were and where they were to be directed and how they would get to where they need to go. . . (but of course that would entail having accurate testing information and transmission tracing) the kind of concerns that keeps Bezos up at night and close attention to has made him a very very wealthy man. . .where we would be if Amazon shut down?
His kids got to be classic NYC trust fund kid. He was from Queens and could never be one. He went the celebrity route without the drugs and alcohol. His father taught him the insides of dirty money politics. Roy Cohn taught him many things. It is amusing to see him and Rudy pulling off Guilianis playbook against Dinkins. Same plan different characters. We got very sick of Rudy but it took 6 years…….so….
He does not ACT on things. He is an excellent Re-Actor. Take credit for what works,cast blame for what doesn’t.