Apparently, ISM figured the February manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs might be a bit “stale” what with everything that’s happening in the world, so rather than wait around to see the likely plunge in both gauges for March, they conducted a special survey on the effects of COVID-19.
Specifically, the survey polled 628 respondents representing both the manufacturing and services industries. More than three-quarters of those polled have revenues less than $10 billion. The survey period was from February 22 to March 5.
The results were… well, not particularly inspiring.
“The story the data tells is that companies are faced with a lengthy recovery to normal operations in the wake of the virus outbreak”, Thomas Derry, CEO of ISM remarked, adding that “for a majority of US businesses, lead times have doubled, and that shortage is compounded by the shortage of air and ocean freight options to move product to the United States — even if they can get orders filled”.
So, that’s no good. As far as the actual numbers go, 75% of companies said they’ve experienced supply chain disruptions “due to coronavirus-related transportation restrictions”. 80% said their organization will likely experience some manner of interruption. 16% have lowered their top-line targets by an average of 5.6%.
Here’s a visual summary of the results:
“We’re seeing that organizations who diversified their supplier base after experiencing tariff impacts, are potentially more equipped to address the effects of COVID-19 on their supply chains”, Derry went on to say.
Somewhere, Peter Navarro is pleased to have another excuse to roll out the somewhat macabre (and totally uncouth) argument that pandemics are perhaps the best reason to favor a strategy that facilitates de-globalization. (Ron Vara would doubtlessly concur.)
Suffice to say that when the March ISM surveys are released, you can expect to see both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing prints sink. Or at least that’s what the above appears to presage.
The irony. Trump and his low iq or immoral allies tell his voters that this is a hoax. So many of the old white voters in red states who are a big part of Trump’s base are going to get killed off by these idiots.
Yet this is providing him with an boost to counter globalization, as H would say “oh the irony”