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A (Dove’s) Wing And A Prayer.
Washington State health officials announced at least four additional deaths from the coronavirus on Monday, and Brazil said the number of suspected cases rose to 433 from 252.
That's the kind of news day it was on the COVID-19 front.
"We have moved to a new stage in the fight to contain, mitigate and manage this outbreak", King County Executive, Dow Constantine, said at a press conference, explaining the severity of the situation in Washington State, where it appears America is on the verge of
How much of today’s action (especially late-afternoon action) was about Klobuchar’s announcement (and Buttigieg’s last night)? Wall Street could take or leave Donald Trump, but it really, really hates Bernie Sanders (and, to a lesser degree, Elizabeth Warren). With the moderate wing of the Democratic Party starting to come together (congeal?) around Biden, I think the street is breathing a little easier about the likelihood of a President Sanders.
Well, if so, they might get a slap in the face tomorrow. Bernie still looking strong out here in CA. Also, lots of folks vote by mail here, and have already mailed ballots in. So today’s drop-out’s may have been too late to boost the remaining centrists on Tuesday (?)
yeah – not so convinced we’ll just rally to new highs from here. current levels are totally justified. will be so stupid if stocks keep rising along with cases/deaths. the case for last week’s drop is only stronger, but market rallies and algos are only too high happy to oblige.
Bas, to your point regarding algo-driven activity… If this is basically going to come down to a “battle of headlines” over the next few weeks, then it seems like the virus will “win”. The G7 will announce whatever they’re going to announce tomorrow … fantastic, that’s great … by the way, probably already baked into today’s torrid afternoon rally. Then… each day thereafter will come the steady influx of case counts, deaths, new nations affected, major event cancellation, school closures, NCAA basketball tourney sites with no crowds present, etc. etc. etc.
I go back to Dec 2018/Jan 2019 … The Fed got too tight, whoops! A single “pivot” in early January 2019 … all better!
Then, to the trade war volley throughout the rest of 2019 … Trump took things a bit too far, got the Chinese to sign some meaningless piece of paper in exchange for significant tariff relief … Boom! All better!
Now, where’s our single “turning point” headline with this virus…? Not so clear…
I’m thinking a series of lower highs and lower lows on SPX for a few months. Happy Spring everyone…
If there was a deadly military threat, individuals and businesses (the private sector) would not be left to pay for the defense with resources on hand. Yet a deadly viral threat, up til now, has not seen any new resources from the monetary sovereign. If all the G7 do is monetary policy, and no fiscal policy, then fade the rally…..According to ANG Traders
The market is likely to rally into fiscal and monetary stimulus if it happens for at least a couple of days-it went straight down after all. The Democratic race is congealing into a two person contest which will make investors feel a little better. Of course the second and third order effects could deliver a blow later so caution is warranted. If your risk is too high use this opportunity to exit very risky positions (if you are an investor).