State Of Emergency.

State Of Emergency.

Some folks didn't fancy being long into a weekend that will feature more headlines documenting new cases of the coronavirus and, in all likelihood, more deaths. Looming large on the horizon is the reopening of mainland markets in China, where shares are almost sure to plunge, especially after Friday's rout on Wall Street. On Friday afternoon, the US declared a public health emergency mandating quarantines for anyone traveling from the epicenter of the outbreak in China. Trump suspended entry i
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3 thoughts on “State Of Emergency.

  1. Me, me, me!

    Seriously, if Chinese markets take a header, the valuation gaps between Chinese and US stocks will be extreme, and China has husbanded more stimulus ammo than the US has, so …

    Yes, nCov will whack economic growth – mightyly, I’d think – but not permanently.

  2. I’m with jyl above.

    Because the death rate (yes, suspect, I know) is only growing linearly, I’m becoming less alarmed, and now somewhat optimistic that China will (a) have the outbreak under control and/or (b) the disease won’t be as devastating as originally feared. I had suspected Thailand to experience an exponential infection rate, and a serious death rate, but as of now (Friday evening) it seems that even they have things under control. So far, it’s a blessing.

  3. HKU’s statistical model (re-released today in the lancet), now estimates 75K cases in Wuhan compared with 3200 confirmed cases in latest update. So a factor of 20+ for statistical estimate of “now” vs. data-based, where data-based (suspected and confirmed) is limited by test resources and/or hospital access, admittance, and enumeration. Wuhan is of course leading the rest of the major metros and it’s not known how effective the combination of lockdowns and self-imposed mobility restrictions will be in preventing a similar disconnect of measured vs. reality in other metros. Given the recent confirmation of asymptomatic transmission, I doubt this epidemic is linear anywhere (we’re just near 0 on the x-axis of that exponential graph in most countries) and will ultimately be limited only by vaccination.

    If the various mobility restrictions really do cause this to die out (would be nice), we should see evidence in China fairly soon I suppose. But if China really is only measuring <10% of the actual cases in the populace, I would be initially skeptical of using confirmed cases to judge any apparent inflection point.

    One could assume the statistical model is crap, I suppose, but I think believing the official numbers are close to reality is likely the worse assumption.

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