Just How Stretched Is This Rubber Band, Anyway?
There's quite a bit of uncertainty out there, even as equities are clearly predisposed to extending the rally and loath to throw in the towel on what, until late last week anyway, was widely described as a "melt-up", if not a "blow-off top" (of course, neither of those terms are real - there is no set definition for either).
In a testament to just how wobbly things are amid virus jitters, Treasury futures volumes (which have been running high) jumped Wednesday morning in the US as headlines sug
Just in the US ….. annual flu deaths have ranged between 12,000 to 61,000, annually.
You are around 3 times as likely to die from the corona virus as normal seasonal influenza…..
under 3% of people who get it…..die from the corona virus.
Sounds like it is spread by common bats, which are sold as food in Asian markets.
In 2003 when there were about 6,000 infected by SARS the WHO estimated the mortality rate to be <4%. They later revised it up to 7%. After it was over they realized that it was actually between 14-15%. Of course, age makes a big difference, with the population over 64 facing a mortality rate of about 50% for SARS.
Also, the seasonal flu has a mortality rate of about .1% across the whole population, so a virus with a 3% mortality rate would be 30 times more fatal than the common flu, not 3%.
Think a Q4 print of 1.7% tomorrow might do it?
Two references to ‘chart crime’ in 24 hours. Good to know that you also follow Authers , H. 😉
I don’t actually. I mean, I know who he is, vaguely.
It’s funny that today this article was in the “you might also be interested in” from one of my other reads. Sometime I missed this one on the initial publication, but with today’s market action and the IHS Markit print today, it’s really timely even over 3 weeks later
I’m glad those “you might be interested in” placements are good for something. 🙂
Even your algos are enlightening 😉 Good stuff. Really appreciate all the insights you bring!