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Treasury Yields Erase Entire ‘Phase One’ Trade Deal Bounce Amid Virus Scare
Predictably, given the weekend news flow, markets kicked off the week with a defensive posture, as C
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The Beijing government has announced that it is extending the New Year holiday for an “appropriate amount of time”. Y
ou have to wonder what the impact will be of the hiatus given the size and import of the Chinese economy.
It depends. The Chinese economy regularly slows to a crawl for a couple of weeks around the Lunar New Year. One would think that purchasing managers would have taken that into account. As such, if the coronavirus outbreak does not spin out of control over the next month supply disruptions are likely to be muted.
If the outbreak does become a pandemic then supply disruptions are likely to be on a global scale with travel and shipping grinding to a near halt amid mass panic and dislocation.
The epidemiology research and reports from friends in/from Wuhan I’m seeing is that this is far worse that the CPC is letting on and a pandemic is likely with the possibility of a Spanish Flu level event not ruled out.
Reports I’m seeing is that while this is a more serious version of “the flu” it’s still just the flu. US media is clearly trying to push a narrative. China scratching Trumps back knocking impeachment out of the headlines? Plus a great reason to get people off the streets in Hong Kong, seems like win-win.
Google “tests for Wuhan negative” and you might be surprised to see that many “suspected cases” worldwide are just “the flu”…
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51249717
https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/health/texas-am-student-tests-negative-for-coronavirus-university-says/2298805/
https://cnnphilippines.com/news/2020/1/24/five-year-old-boy-negative-test-for-wuhan-virus.html?fbclid=IwAR3fAZd1ePIbFdY-HkDbVE3skaGzNXbD98_Be9GQkKvLqz8CUa57_l7KJG0
https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/01/25/two-chinese-tourists-test-negative-for-coronavirus-in-bali.html
https://www.wyff4.com/article/test-results-negative-for-possible-coronavirus-in-north-carolina/30664607#
https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2020/01/24/eight-chinese-tourists-in-johor-test-negative-for-wuhan-virus-says-exco-member
Anyway, you get the idea. Xi is probably playing it straight knowing we would all ASSUME he’s lying.
Even if it’s just “the flu” (in terms of symptoms & mortality), that is still significant. Many health care providers struggle during a serious flu season. But if you have a novel coronavirus on top of flu, we very likely will see hospitals become overwhelmed. Not trying to paint a dire picture. However, it does have the potential to disrupt every day life.
3m 10y is only 12 bp now.
2 year forward rate for the UST 3 mo is about (eyeballing) 1.46% now, inverted by 7 bp vs 1.53% spot.
UST 3 mo to 10 yr spread is just 7 bp