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US-China ‘Phase One’ Deal Seen Delayed, Could Be Signed In Famous US Farm State Switzerland

Who's surprised?

Who's surprised?
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11 comments on “US-China ‘Phase One’ Deal Seen Delayed, Could Be Signed In Famous US Farm State Switzerland

  1. “The Art of the (non)Deal” #MAGA

  2. So, they can’t agree on the simple thing of where to sign the agreement and we’re supposed to believe the narrative that they have made meaningful progress on any terms?

    Basically the trump admin is so psychotically delusional they believe their own propaganda. I envision this general scenario: the US team walks into the room tells the Chinese what they want to happen; assume the Chinese are sycophants too;!walk out and tell the press that they made meaningful progress while the Chinese have not agreed to anything.

  3. Stephen in Canada

    “The Art of the (non)Deal” – seems a bit harsh! The Art of the Fake Deal seems rather more in keeping with the language and other trade “accomplishments” so far by the current leader of the US Administration….

  4. Huh, I would have thought the Trump club in Doral would be the perfect choice. 😉

  5. Possible senario: Trump will raise taxes in December. He is like a kid with one water balloon left to lob, he won’t be able to resist it.

  6. Love the image, though it is a bit worrisome. Trump, Mnuchin, Mulvaney, Bolton (buh-bye), Navarro, and Suzie Q — that’s our negotiating team? I mean, what could go wrong?

  7. You know, if you look at the people arranged on both sides of the table in the picture above the article it strikes me that there is not one idiot on the Chinese side. Soooo one sided.

  8. It seems that the next actual development will be the Great Trump Cave To Xi.

    Meaning, having given up on getting any real IP, market access, or economic reform stuff from China – deferring these to “Phase 2 or 3” is the same as giving up – all Trump can get from China now is resumed ag purchases.

    In return, Xi is evidently hanging tough on getting the US tariffs removed. Every last tariff? Maybe not, but remove the planned Dec ’19 tariffs and the Sep ’19 tariffs and reduce or remove the Sep ’18 tariffs, and that’s most of the tariffs, and CNY/USD takes care of the rest.

    The Great Cave seems likely to happen in December, given the planned Dec ’19 tariffs and Trump’s need to score a “win” to distract from his impeachment and this week’s election setbacks.

    That will foreclose another Fed cut, which will make Trump mad, but the Fed has pumped something like $200BN of liquidity into the economy in less than a month (repo + TBL purchases) and will pump in at least another $200BN and likely more over the next month or two. That’s better than another 25 bps any day.

    Powell caved (little “c”) to Trump, next is for Trump to Cave (big “C”) to Xi.

    If this is indeed what happens, why should we care about negative economic data? Whatever the ISM or PMI do, the market can say that’s looking in the rearview mirror, we’re now in a Post-Cave world.

    If US employment or consumer spending fall very sharply, that will get the market’s attention. But manufacturing, trade, orders, estimates, capex – who cares? “All will be well again once the nasty tariffs go away.” I don’t know if that will really prove true, but the market can believe it for a couple quarters or more.

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