Deutsche’s Kocic On 2020 Election: ‘Diametrically Opposite Views’ Will ‘Revive Uncertainty’ Around Long-Term Fed Policy

Next year's presidential election in the US may usher back in a period of uncertainty around the likely path for long-term monetary policy, Deutsche Bank's Aleksandar Kocic writes, in his latest note. Outside of recessions, presidential elections haven't catalyzed much in the way of volatility across rates, equities and FX vol. (with the latter proxied by 1-month on EURUSD). Prior to 2016, cross-asset volatility either fell or remained generally unchanged over the course of November in an elec