Macro Tourist Says ‘Don’t Fight The Fiscal’
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Over the past year you have probably heard me rail about the folly of monetary madness too many times. Negative rates are an abomination that demonstrate the sheer idiocy of current policy. History will not be kind to countries who have adopted NIRP. But the last thing you need is another post of me shouting at the top of my lungs about the reckless reliance on extreme monetary policy in Europe. You don’t need another diatribe about how easy money and fisca
By golly, the bugaboos which will leave me awake for nights on end is the rate of change in both GDP and debt. I realize that a case can be made that trump’s YUGE GDP growth and debt is a glowing model that India might emulate — maybe it might work better over there than it has here. The trump tax cut as fiscal stimulus has basically gone up in smoke with nothing to show for all the drama (maybe I missed the growth part?). I’m not seeing a life-altering spike in U.S. markets or GDP in terms of Real growth but I do see the increase in the deficit and the economy slowing down. The lack of growth in America for all practical purposes is linked to the very same economic inequality cancer that allows wealthy parasite to feed off the poor — the fiscal QE game is not going to have any impact on that structural flaw, and I offer the Great Recession as an example, along with the 30 year-long stimulus plan from Japan. India will remain India not Disneyland.
Re: “This year’s deficit as a percentage of GDP for the United States? 4.4%”
FYI: This year, FY 2019, the federal government in its latest budget has “estimated” that the deficit will be 5.1 percent of GDP.
Federal deficits increased in the early 2000s, and went over 10 percent of GDP in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008
According to the latest forecast from the Congressional Budget Office, the federal deficit will grow from 4.2 percent of GDP in 2019 to 8.7 percent of GDP by 2049*
Of course future GDP and debt are based on trump budget projections which are highly suspect and related to
https://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/federal_deficit_percent_gdp
The House passed a continuing resolution (CR) on Sept. 19 that funds the government through Nov. 21
Maybe I need a snack? Just venting!
1.) No right-winger outside of the seventeen people in the Austrian school has ever given a crap about balanced budgets except for when the opposition is in power with different spending priorities. Right-wing parties the world over are only about three things: Delivering tax cuts for their donors, delivering deregulation for their donors, and casual racism.
2.) U.S. economic policy may just be a disaster fueled by both public and private debt, tax cuts, and misappropriated public spending, but those six months of equity returns! Totes worth it.
3.) Over 40% of Indians poop in a hole in the ground. Almost 200 million Indians are malnourished. 3,000,000 Indian children will die this year of starvation. Those corporate tax cuts, tho’! So, long Indian equities I guess.
That’s it. I’m done putting any stock in the Macro Tourist. He is an armchair tourist only. Knows nothing about India. Just take a trip there. You will become ill and not just figuratively. The filthy rivers and streets are littered with garbage and the air is unbreathable. Turns the snot in your nose black in two days. And it gets worse every year.
The few rich and corrupt have been able to grind the poor into the dirt and rise up on top of them for now but soon their footing will give way and they will collapse. Hundreds of farmers are committing suicide every day because alternating droughts and floods decimate their crops. Water rationing has progressed to bringing in water by trucks and rail. Climate change is banging loudly at India’s door. Famine, water scarcity and deadly heat waves are a reality. Population control has been abandoned for decades. No I wouldn’t touch India with a ten foot pole.
In my opinion India has missed the window to do what China did. China was able to quickly capitalize on industrialization and utilized its massive population to provide cheap labour for those in the West. With automation, India will not have the “population” or “cheap” advantage so it will have to go through a different path. Perhaps that is why they are spending so much on IT. However, I still think their progress will not be comparable.