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Divided Fed Was Divided, September FOMC Minutes Show
Fed officials debated when to call an end to the current round of policy easing at their September meeting, as dissension within the committee underscored disagreements about the relative merits of additional "insurance" cuts. There seems to be some discomfort with how the market is pricing the rate path and how some officials see things evolving.
Last month's pow wow produced a trio of dissents, as Eric Rosengren and Esther George stuck to their guns from July, arguing against a rate cut, wh
“The U.S. is closer to a Japanese-style outcome today than at any time in recent history,” said James Bullard, the president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, in a research paper.
In his paper, Bullard argued that the best policy option for the Fed to counter the deflation threat is to buy more Treasurys.
That was Bullard’s message July 29, 2010, which makes me wonder how much time this dude has left to go with his Fed term …
approved for terms to February 28, 2021 … Oh shit, I mean oh well. Maybe he has a cool job and makes good money, but his advice doesn’t seem on the money!
Bullard ranks 845th on the list of economic authors, but the good news is,trump isn’t on “it”:
https://ideas.repec.org/top/top.person.alldetail10.html
I was pondering the other day, i.e., at some point when a recession phases in, I think it will be far harder to come out of it quickly (if at all) because, fewer people will have the savings, skills and ability to be entrepreneurs — unless you think that part-time Gig jobs amount to realistic earnings. The Great Recession came about almost because of an extreme desire from people to engage in entrepreneurship and to risk everything staking their place in their world, running their small businesses and being the boss. I guess I see this next phase in my little town, where brand new strip malls remain almost totally empty, after 12 years of decreased risk taking. The few people opening shops in little spaces almost all go out of business because of overhead and the reality of being unable to keep pace with the evolving online economy. There’s not going to be a next time, after the next recession, because profit will not be out there for the little guys — it’s gonna be a lot different in 3 to 5 years. I think in a macro-way, that’s connected to people not investing in longer term bonds — and as things get weirder in this insane time period, growth in terms of GDP most likely will crash and burn. Add-in an insane election, low growth, polarization, weak economies and chaos … and don’t forget the Great Baby Boom spillover effects, and the future looks utterly bleak. As mentioned in a prior post, as yields go to zero and there are fewer people chasing yields and caring about treasury-stuff, how’s all this lack of investment in the future gonna pan out — huh?
I haven’t read this, but looks good and that list above may help provide some stimulating thoughts:
The Surprising Decline of Entrepreneurship and Innovation in the West
” … as economist Nicholas Bloom and his co-authors have found, “research productivity for the aggregate U.S. economy has declined by a factor of 41 since the 1930s, an average decrease of more than 5 percent per year.”
https://www.worth.com/the-surprising-decline-of-entrepreneurship-and-innovation-in-the-west/