In the first volley of what is sure to be an incessant (and contradictory) barrage of trade headlines during a week that finds Vice Premier Liu He leading a Chinese delegation into Washington for the first high-level negotiations in months, Fox News on Monday reported that Beijing is prepared to cement a partial agreement with the Trump administration.
That’s according to the network’s Edward Lawrence, citing the Chinese Commerce Ministry.
The “news” comes after Bloomberg on Sunday reported that Beijing has narrowed the scope of any potential agreement to exclude concessions on industrial subsides.
Read more: China, Smelling Blood, Seen Taking Key Concessions Off Table Ahead Of Trade Talks
“The Ministry tells us they are prepared to set out a timetable for the harder issues to be worked out next year”, Fox’s Lawrence went on to say, adding that Xi is “ready to do a deal” based on the issues “both sides agree upon”.
If you’re wondering what those issues are, exactly, you’re not alone. Suffice to say the list isn’t long.
Amusingly, this appears to be the same news that Bloomberg reported, just spun from a different angle. “While [Bob Lighthizer is] unlikely to accept any Chinese offer that doesn’t address industrial subsidies or policy, people close to him say he may be willing to embrace ‘sequencing’ a deal and an ‘early-harvest’ agreement as long as broader talks continue”, Bloomberg wrote over the weekend.
That “sequencing” – or “early harvesting”, if you like – would presumably entail the US accepting an interim agreement with a pledge to keep the discussion around thornier issues alive.
If that’s the case, this entire effort will have largely been a farce. All of the important issues are thorny. Peter Navarro and, less aggressively, Lighthizer, have sought to force Beijing to implement real, sweeping economic reforms. It became clear over the summer that China simply wasn’t willing to go down that road, or at least not far enough to satisfy US demands.
And yet, it would not be at all surprising if Trump, desperate for a “win”, agreed to lift or ease tariffs in exchange for little more than a handshake and a photo op, recent pretensions to accepting nothing short of a “real” deal notwithstanding.
In addition to China’s recalcitrance on industrial policy, it still isn’t clear how much progress has been made on IP theft and forced technology transfer. Indeed, in a subsequent tweet, Fox’s Lawrence said the following:
The Chinese Commerce Ministry says what is not in the table and never will be is changes to their laws to protect intellectual property. The Commerce Ministry telling us that the Chinese will deal with intellectual property theft through administrative regulations.
In short, one is left to ponder a tragicomedic outcome that finds China simply agreeing to start purchasing US farm goods again, and the US lifting tariffs, largely restoring the state of affairs that existed prior to this now 16-month-old charade.
Of course, Trump will claim to have accomplished something earth-shattering even if, when pressed, he will struggle to explain exactly what’s so “tremendous” or “historic” about what will almost surely amount to nothing more than a set of token concessions of little consequence.
