Why Risk Assets Are Immune To Crazy Politics
On February 1, we gingerly suggested that market participants were witnessing something important - a policy shift that would have dramatic ramifications for all assets and would likely be seen, in hindsight, as momentous. Specifically, we said this:
In hindsight, January may well be remembered as the month when monetary policy makers ushered in a new central bank “put”, and if the history books do end up reflecting that, it will more than a little ironic.
After all, as late as December’
With a grain of salt, a plate of self pity, a side of denial, a cup of wrath, and yet another pile of cheap tricks for desert.
risk assets…immune to politics since ….forever. unless there is a revolution (literally). for the USA. look at any chart of the prices for equities. moves from lower left to upper right relentlessly, with a few bumps along the way. companies will find ways to increase profits and stock prices until the are stopped by guns (literally). unless you believe a madd maxx scenario is coming, equities is the way to go. the only thing that will stop the bull market (as always) is a real recession. Not fake recessions, growth slowdowns, political nonsense, fed mis-steps (unless it leads to an actual recession).
if one believes we are at a march 2000 or oct 2007 point in the market, then of course, one should move to the sidelines and out of stocks. the data does not support that conclusion.