On Saturday morning, Donald Trump put on his equity strategist hat and delivered a bold call on the S&P in 2021.
Specifically, strategist Trump said that unless his president self is reelected, US stocks will suffer the worst crash in recorded history.
Never one to shy away from bombast, the president claimed his economy continues to break records (he didn’t specify what he meant by “records”) and, notably, he didn’t differentiate between candidates or even between parties, necessarily, when it comes to what fate will befall investors should he somehow be usurped.
“The Trump Economy is setting records, and has a long way up to go”, Trump tweeted, adding “….” for dramatic effect before delivering the goods as follows:
However, if anyone but me takes over in 2020 (I know the competition very well), there will be a Market Crash the likes of which has not been seen before! KEEP AMERICA GREAT
That, right there, is one helluva prediction. Trump is famous for claiming that anything associated with him is “unlike anything anyone has ever witnessed.” He’s also known to accidentally describe his presidency in authoritarian terms. Saturday’s stock market tweet checks both boxes.
You’ll note that Trump’s penchant for associating himself with “big league” events isn’t confined to things that are good. For instance, he habitually (and proudly) describes natural disasters during his presidency as the worst anybody has ever seen, and although he wants to stop it, he seems to take a certain measure of pride in the severity of the crisis at the border (it’s the worst “invasion” in the history of invasions).
Saturday’s market crash prediction is just the latest example of Trump claiming that, one way or another, history’s most consequential events will be tied to things he’s done, said, won, lost or directly caused.
The ultimate irony is that if he did lose the election and stocks did fall 80% (or something), Trump would be absolutely ecstatic at the prospect of going down in the history books as the president whose election loss triggered the largest destruction of wealth in human history. Because not only would that inflate his ego, it would also verify, in his mind anyway, the idea that he and he alone was responsible for a stock market that was already up triple-digits from the 2009 nadir when he took office and an unemployment rate that was already near historic lows by the time he was inaugurated.
Never forget the following soundbite from Jeff Gundlach, who, during a recent interview with CNBC, told the truth about Trump’s economic claims and explicitly lamented the extent to which Americans will now believe anything they’re told.
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