On Saturday morning, Donald Trump put on his equity strategist hat and delivered a bold call on the S&P in 2021.
Specifically, strategist Trump said that unless his president self is reelected, US stocks will suffer the worst crash in recorded history.
Never one to shy away from bombast, the president claimed his economy continues to break records (he didn’t specify what he meant by “records”) and, notably, he didn’t differentiate between candidates or even between parties, necessarily, when it comes to what fate will befall investors should he somehow be usurped.
“The Trump Economy is setting records, and has a long way up to go”, Trump tweeted, adding “….” for dramatic effect before delivering the goods as follows:
However, if anyone but me takes over in 2020 (I know the competition very well), there will be a Market Crash the likes of which has not been seen before! KEEP AMERICA GREAT
That, right there, is one helluva prediction. Trump is famous for claiming that anything associated with him is “unlike anything anyone has ever witnessed.” He’s also known to accidentally describe his presidency in authoritarian terms. Saturday’s stock market tweet checks both boxes.
You’ll note that Trump’s penchant for associating himself with “big league” events isn’t confined to things that are good. For instance, he habitually (and proudly) describes natural disasters during his presidency as the worst anybody has ever seen, and although he wants to stop it, he seems to take a certain measure of pride in the severity of the crisis at the border (it’s the worst “invasion” in the history of invasions).
Saturday’s market crash prediction is just the latest example of Trump claiming that, one way or another, history’s most consequential events will be tied to things he’s done, said, won, lost or directly caused.
The ultimate irony is that if he did lose the election and stocks did fall 80% (or something), Trump would be absolutely ecstatic at the prospect of going down in the history books as the president whose election loss triggered the largest destruction of wealth in human history. Because not only would that inflate his ego, it would also verify, in his mind anyway, the idea that he and he alone was responsible for a stock market that was already up triple-digits from the 2009 nadir when he took office and an unemployment rate that was already near historic lows by the time he was inaugurated.
Never forget the following soundbite from Jeff Gundlach, who, during a recent interview with CNBC, told the truth about Trump’s economic claims and explicitly lamented the extent to which Americans will now believe anything they’re told.
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If in the eagles lair the orange-headed fool should fail the plebiscite, then shall the apple plummet and the book of faces be closed
It should also be noted that but for the purely mechanical effects of the tax cut, the S&P would be about flat since Trump was inaugurated. If you assume the tax cut did nothing for the economy so that the S&P’s before tax profits woudl have been the same with or without the tax cut, then the tax cut increased after tax profits by ~20%. Assuming the same multiplier on after tax profit translates into a 20% bump in the S&P. For a number of reasons the actual increase was probably not 20%, but even if it was half that, the S&P would be sitting at about 2600 on an apples to apples basis.
Make no mistake, Trump is getting bolder about the idea of “taking over.” I would not be surprised if the 2020 election isn’t the dirtiest, scariest event in the memory of every living American and win or lose, his Heness will use the outcome as a pretext for doing just that. Trump has no plans for leaving the WH no matter what and there is no mechanism in our society for dealing with that eventuality.
Typical delusional Donald. The relief really once trump leaves office will be tremendous.
If it isn’t Biden, I mean, yeah, prolly. First off, healthcare and insurance stocks would suffer from fears of Medicare For All being implemented. Defense stocks would suffer because spending would have to come down from their current Republican fever dream highs. Telecoms would be dinged by a return to net neutrality. Tax cuts would be reversed, at a minimum, probably increased. The regulatory regime would return. Labor costs would almost certainly increase. Private prison stocks would get crushed. Alcohol and tobacco companies would suffer from increased competition from cannabis. Fossil fuel companies would sink on a Green New Deal agenda. And, of course, financial firms would scream if it was a Sanders or Warren Administration and probably outright pre-emptively revolt to scuttle their platform.
The interesting thing about your list is that while those stocks would drop, life in our society would improve. That’s the fundamental question and debate: higher stock prices or a better life for everyone?
I’d like trump to define biblical, because he doesn’t strike me as a chapter and verse type guy…I only say that since, if I fade trump, go short and the market does become unhinged in a “biblical” manner….it seems to me I win twice
Futures markets did go limit down during November 2016 election night- because Trump had a chance to win??