S&P Would Fall 7% In Worst-Case Trade War, Goldman Says (Don’t Ask About Any Second-Order ‘Nonlinearity’)
Let's be clear: It is impossible to estimate the impact of an all-out trade war on US equity prices with any semblance of precision.
The problem, obviously, is that while you can quantify the first-order effects, there's no way to know, ahead of time, how the interplay of souring sentiment, lackluster liquidity and selling by vol.-sensitive investors will pan out, should things go off the rails entirely.
That said, there's no harm in trying, one supposes. In a note out just before midnight, Go
A 7% decline would be lucky in my view.
This might just be just my opinion , but Goldman opinions ,estimates and research have drifted a king way downward in the last several years.
whoops….typo…that is long way downward
I don’t know how anything will shake out. All I want is for people to stop making year-end S&P 500 forecasts and high-stepping four months in when it looks like we are going to 3000. Nobody knows anything in a system governed by chaos, and there is no way to discern a systematic understanding of complex factors from one lucky guess among hundreds of different guesses.
thank you ….LOL
I think we have a MUCH farther way to fall. The extreme indebtedness, the far-flung global interdependencies, the excruciating parallels with ’29 (including a narrow-minded, pig-headed President), and the black swans’ emergence from hibernation…all suggest this coming October’s massacre will be deep and widespread. I’m out of the market and don’t know where to hide.