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Macro Rumor Mill: ‘High-Profile Former Central Bank Head’ Says Odds Of Q1 2020 Fed Hike Higher Than Odds Of Cut
The knee-jerk reaction to Friday's US jobs report suggested market participants believe a cooler-than-expected read on wages will reinforce Fed "patience".
That, in turn, appears to have taken some of the edge off Jerome Powell's "hawkish" lean from Wednesday's post-FOMC press conference.
But just as it was probably a mistake to read too much into Powell's "transitory" messaging, it might be dangerous to read too much into another below-consensus AHE print.
The headline number from the Apri
that would be bizarre unless the 2yr yield climbs dramatically. IF everything is cooking, WHY are short term yields falling. the Fed follows rates…and raising rates w/out the 90day and 2 yr rates going up first…would slam the curve into inversion. something isnt quite right….also if there is a $ shortage why is the TED spread not showing it.?
I think the real question is how do you have a mild recession in a Buy the Dip market with low volume and low volatility while you have incredibly low unemployment and yet low wage growth and all time highs for corporate and consumer debt with very low wealth across a wide spectrum of the population. It seems any slowdown could easily be catastrophic, just look at how crazy the last quarter of 2018 was and hardly anything even happened yet. It’s like standing on a frozen lake as the ice melts and when you go to move you hear it begin to crack, sure putting both feet down again will save you for a while but you still need to get off the lake…