howard marks Markets S&P 500 stocks

Howard Marks: ‘I Don’t Believe We’re In A Bubble, I Don’t Think We’re Going To Have A Crash’

"To me, it just confirms that markets are psychologically volatile."

One of the points we made continuously in Q4 (and we were especially keen on emphasizing it in December) was that investors had fallen victim to a (largely false) narrative about the Fed and the economy. Subsequently, market participants lost track of their own role in shaping that narrative, setting the stage for a self-fulfilling prophecy to take hold. Numerous analysts weighed in on this phenomenon. For instance: Around the the time the 2s5s and 3s5s inverted, Nomura's Charlie McElligott warned we were "reverse engineering a growth slowdown". Marko Kolanovic famously decried the role played by social media and negative news amplification channels (e.g., blogs and other portals) in the feedback loop between systematic flows, volatility and liquidity. "If we add to this an increased number of algorithms that trade based on posts and headlines, the impact on price action and investor psychology can be significant", he cautioned. Deutsche Bank's Aleksandar Kocic talked of a "financial parallax", "cognitive instability" and "recession as subverted perspective" Fast forward to February and a new narrative has taken root. Or at least it seems that way. Now, the reinst
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3 comments on “Howard Marks: ‘I Don’t Believe We’re In A Bubble, I Don’t Think We’re Going To Have A Crash’

  1. Harvey Darrow Cotton says:

    “Stock P/E ratios are pretty much in line with the postwar average.”

    Um, okay. So my question would be, which war is he talking about? The 2003 Iraq War?

  2. Murphy says:

    QUOTE H: “…over the weekend in “Back To The Drawing Board“

    which reminds me that I failed to remember to send you a note — my favorite part of that drawing depicted in your header on that article — really loved that drawing and I recall the hand drawn at the upper portion was using a mechanical pencil, a high tech looking model — and the hand in the lower portion was using a nub of a wooden pencil that appeared to have been sharpened with a whittling knife. I believe I would like a copy of that drawing – can you tell me where you found it or anything to help me find the drawing? 🤓

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