First of all, Donald Trump wants you to know that this your “moment.” And that “no matter where you’ve been, or where you come from, this is your time”.
Trump: "This, in fact, is our new American moment. There has never been a better time to start living the American dream. So to every citizen watching at home tonight, no matter where you've been, or where you've come from, this is your time." https://t.co/q18EZzVe9p #SOTU pic.twitter.com/0KJq7a8vJR
— CBS News (@CBSNews) January 31, 2018
Of course if “you’ve been” to Mexico it’s “your time” to get the fuck out of here and never come back. And if you “come from” an Arab country or God forbid a “shithole”, well then the “moment” for you to stop thinking about coming to America is right now.
Speaking of “moments”, today might well have been “the moment” when the Greenspan-Bernanke-Yellen “put” died. This was the last Fed meeting presided over by your benefactor and now you’re left in the hopefully capable hands of Jerome Powell who will have to try pretty goddamn hard if he wants to preserve the risk asset bubble.
Basically, the statement makes a March hike a foregone conclusion. Odds rose to 94% from 88%. Odds of March hike were 62% on December 29.
Hell of a start to the year, this week’s hiccup notwithstanding:
Best month for the Dow since March 2016:
On the day, Treasurys were mixed. 10Y yields rose in the knee-jerk response to the Treasury refunding announcement only to fall through 2.70 immediately afterwards, then rise after the Fed statement and fade into the close. Here’s 10Y yields and the dollar annotated on the day:
5s30s flattened inside 42bp on Wednesday in another “flattest since 2007” moment:
This was the most “volatile” month since the election:
You already know the big picture story with bonds, but here’s 10Y yields on the month:
Third monthly loss for the dollar in a row and the worst monthly decline since March 2016:
Oil was up more than 7% in January:
Across the pond, Capita plunged after basically just kitchen-sinkin’ shit, dividend suspension and all. Look at this POS here:
Overall (i.e. outside of the UK) European shares stabilized on Wednesday coming off their worst day since November, but this has not been a good week:
Blistering start to the year for H-shares and also for the Kosdaq. Hang Seng not too shabby either:
Oh, and this was the worst month for Bitcoin since February 2014. It was down nearly 30%:
Fortunately, there’s still time to get out because as of Wednesday, it’s still trading about $10,000 above where it’s ultimately headed.
Finally, “buyer beware”: