‘Bitcoin Froth’ Will Spill Over Into Stocks And Beware The ‘Crypto Winter’

Three weeks ago, Deutsche Bank’s Torsten Slok sent the following list (which documents 30 risks to markets in 2018) to clients:

Coming in at number 13 (appropriately enough), is “Bitcoin crash, confidence impact on retail investors.”

On its face, that might seem absurd, but we think it has some merit. Cryptocurrencies are rapidly going mainstream and the launch of Bitcoin futures on the Cboe and CME along with Goldman’s apparently imminent move into crypto market making suggest integration (or maybe “intermingling” is better) with established markets is set to accelerate going forward.

Meanwhile, there’s anecdotal evidence to suggest people are speculating in cryptocurrencies using credit and indeed there are now startups that are lending against crypto collateral.

One can’t help but wonder if maybe one explanation for the recent large outflow from U.S. equity funds and ETFs is retail investors taking profits and plowing them into cryptocurrencies.

Well, one person who thinks it’s entirely possible that a crypto selloff could spill over into other assets if it adversely affects retail sentiment is Wells Fargo’s Christopher Harvey.

“What we’re worried about is froth coming out of that market, and that’s starting to affect equities,” he told CNBC on Friday. Have a listen/look:

Right. And see there’s no way of knowing how interconnected all of this is. That is, have some retail investors been emboldened to take more risk in equities thanks to unrealized gains in the cryptoverse? If so, do those equity positions come off in a hurry if Bitcoin suddenly slumps to say, $5,000?

And think about all of the recent gains we’ve seen in companies that have decided to become blockchain adopters overnight. Companies like “Long Island Iced Tea” which soared 400% after changing its name to “Long Blockchain.” All of those companies are likely going right back to where they were prior to the blockchain mania and in many cases that means right back to being penny stocks. That too represents the evaporation of paper wealth, although insiders are going to feel a lot of that pain.

Meanwhile, Julian Hosp says Bitcoin is headed to $60,000 (or $5,000), but he also says that in “1-2 years”, “crypto winter is coming.” “There is definitely going to be a big compression in the market,” he told CNBC, adding the following:

I don’t think it’s going to be a bubble that’s just going to burst and everyone is going to lose their money, but I think it’s going to be that all the coins and all the assets with very little use or value are going to get sorted out.

Here’s the clip:

Make of all that what you will, but the bit about who’s going to be driving the price action during the holiday-shortened week is certainly a good question.

Over the weekend, Bitcoin struggled to recover from a week that saw it plunge more than 30% from all-time highs. On Tuesday, it’s up a bit, but it’s got a lot further to go to get back to where it was trading ahead of the CME futures launch: