They all settled to get out. At least two dozen were released if not more.
That’s what a senior adviser to the Saudi government told the Wall Street Journal whose Summer Said on Sunday revealed that “at least” 24 of those detained as part of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s “anti-corruption” sweep have now been released.
On Friday evening, the Journal reported that Prince al-Waleed bin Talal (easily the most high-profile “suspect” housed at the Ritz-Carlton) is being asked to fork over some $6 billion in exchange for his own freedom.
According to WSJ, those released recently include:
- Ibrahim al-Assaf, former finance minister and Aramco board member;
- Mohammed bin Homoud Al Mazyed, former assistant minister of finance;
- Saoud al-Daweesh, former chief executive of Saudi Telecom;
- Prince Turki bin Khalid;
- and businessman Mohy Saleh Kamel
Not surprisingly, none of them could be reached for comment and attempts to reach the Saudi government were not successful.
You’re reminded that in addition to the rather obvious fact that the corruption push is an effort on the part of MbS to consolidate power, it’s not a coincidence that Riyadh’s plan to reclaim $100 billion in purportedly ill-gotten gains comes at a time when SAMA reserves have plunged:
Also, the most recent deals with detainees come just as the Saudis released an expansionary budget for 2018 that includes a 10% increase in spending. Here’s the breakdown:
The budget deficit has now fallen below 10% of GDP for the first time since the oil downturn. “The fiscal deficit has continued to narrow over 2017 although partly due to cyclical and one-off factors,” BofAML wrote earlier this week, before reminding you that the 2017 fiscal deficit of SAR230bn (c9% of GDP) is notably narrower versus 2016 levels (SAR416bn; US$110.9bn; 17.2% of GDP).
This is a relief for investors worried about the extent to which austerity measures are weighing on growth. Have a look at Saudi stocks versus emerging market equities:
But as authorities move to loosen their fiscal stance on the way to prizing growth over consolidation, don’t forget that there’s considerable risk here. “Fiscal easing could prove premature if oil prices disappoint as higher expenditures drive the fiscal breakeven oil price higher, and private sector expectations now make changing course more challenging near-term,” BofAML continues, in the same note cited above.
So if the threat of a spiraling sectarian conflict and the extension of the cuts isn’t enough to keep crude prices elevated, the fiscal breathing room would evaporate. That said, don’t forget that they can always borrow to offset some of the pressure.
Ultimately, there are more questions than answers here and when that’s the case, why not extort your cousins and other relatives for $100 billion just to give yourself a little extra cushion, right?
Right.
I can see no greater reason to go green. Happy whatever H.