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Commodus And The Tantrum Tail Risk
Listen, if we get a bond tantrum catalyzed by an unexpected uptick in inflation that forces central
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inflation surprise seems to be the most common concern, as common as the knowledge that stocks will go up nicely again next year. automation, the amazon effect, and general underemployment are keeping costs low…no surprise inflation is going to occur.
this morning kramer claimed an inverted yeild curve will mean nothing. today’s wsj says japan will very much slow their QE program, the fed already is, and the ecb also already is having cut in half their monthly bond purchases. its all relative, going from a nice flow to much less flow is akin to outright tightening…theres just a lag time we need to identify.