Ok, so Saudi stocks did it again on Wednesday.
After falling 1.1% intraday, they rallied in the last 25 or so minutes of trading to close green. This is four days in a row of this now and I’ve got to tell you, it is truly farcical:
As we wrote on Tuesday afternoon, it is obvious that state funds are stepping in to rescue this market as investors remain vexed about what happens next in the region with tension between Iran’s proxy armies and MbS reaching a veritable fever pitch.
Saudi CDS is blowing out too, although it’s worth noting that we’re a long way away from where things stood in early 2016 when a series of events that started with Riyadh posting a record budget deficit and culminated with a diplomatic crisis after the execution of prominent Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr drove the kingdom to the brink of war with Iran. Here’s some perspective on that:
You’re reminded that in the episode which coincided with the peak shown there on the chart, Iranian protesters actually ransacked Saudi Arabia’s embassy in Tehran and set the place on fire:
So you know, it could be worse (there’s some sarcasm there).
And hey, if you’re a bargain hunter, Exotix notes that valuations are compelling. “Investor (domestic and foreign) expectations of success in meeting challenges appears low given the valuation of the equity market, measured by the Tadawul All Share, is at a 20% and 7% discount to the mid-point of the last five-year range for trailing P/B and P/E, respectively, and trading volumes (dominated by locals) this year are down to a third of the level seen in 2014-16,” they write, in a note dated yesterday.
So see? There’s always a silver (or I guess in this case “gold” is more appropriate) lining.