Listen, I don’t know if you noticed, but there is some “big league” shit goin’ down on Friday.
On Thursday evening, the Senate passed a crucial budget, that definitely isn’t just a completely made up process the sole purpose of which is to pave the way for tax reform. And the GOP definitely isn’t lying when they say that tax reform isn’t for rich people. Similarly, Donald Trump definitely isn’t lying when he says the tax cuts are going to be the biggest in American history.
So because no one is lying, and because what happened last night would be the definition of “bigly” if “bigly” were a real word (I mean, technically it is a real word, but you get the joke), today is completely different than yesterday.
Because yesterday, we were all afraid that the mini-crash in Hong Kong, the Catalan secession bid, and an ill-advised mention of “Minksy moments” by PBoC Governor Zhou Xiaochuan was going to trigger a “Black” Thursday (and not the kind of “black” like Marc Faber hates).
But on Friday, thanks to a GOP that just wants to help out working families who are strapped for cash (families like the Mnuchins), and thanks to Donald Trump who would have made America greatly-iest again already if it weren’t for the “obstructionist” Democrats who hate prosperity, things are much different.
Have a look at the dollar and yields:
See there? That’s the reflation narrative coming back!
Here’s Bloomberg’s Cameron Crise with a reality check:
Thursday’s doom-and-gloom pre-market feeling has been replaced by Friday’s happy-clappy reaction to the passage of the Senate budget resolution. One wonders, however, if the outcome will be the same: a drift toward a close that’s barely up on the day. To be sure, the Senate vote represents a necessary step toward enacting tax cuts, er, reform, but it is hardly sufficient.
The burden of proof very much rests on Congress to show it can actually pass something, though obviously enabling the reconciliation process should make that easier. Still, the evidence suggests that assuming that something will eventually go through might still be a little dangerous.
Whatever, man. It’s time to get on board this #MAGA train.
Because what could go wrong, right?
Bigly IS a word..God Bless America, the land of great aspirations and bigly piles of never ending BS. We won’t have “Tax Reform”…this is how, with special help from my crystal ball, this funniest will play out.
1. Tax “Reform” is always tough to pass..and Trump has ZERO Congressional heft. When this goes down it will solidify his notion that the only things he can count on is the power of the decree pen…he’ll start scheming…
2. Fed Chairpersons serve 4 years..that means the next party pooper or pumper will outlive Captain Eightball by at least 1 year….Fed Chairs are XTREMELY difficult to remove…the Fed Balance sheet unwind will take place and it’s going to put pressures on the yield curve and the bid for every kind of risky asset.
THOSE OUT FIRST WIN……
3.Trump will want the skids greased and the Fed Chair will waffle/hesitate/stall/ruminate Bigly.
4. At some point..and I am going on record that Jan 2018 will be THE month…things really unwind. Trump uses the power of the pen in ways never imagined and, in the attempt, to save his “spectacular, really great/hugeamazing” market legacy and economy starts the money flowing directly to people. Oh my…there will be a ruckus.
5. His Cabinet will start distancing themselves distinctly from him..and that’s VERY bad for Trump because they and Pence are the gatekeepers of the 25th Amendment…now..not before..are we set up for removal and a political battle..which Trump will lose because Pence will NOT support him.