Make Bad News Great Again! Futures Jump With Gold On CPI Miss

So the CPI print was a miss and as noted, that’s got the dollar and yields on the move – and by “on the move” we mean sharply lower.

Looking out across other assets, gold is markedly higher:


Now recall what we said earlier about bad news still being good news in terms of a weak CPI print making it less likely that the Fed will get too aggressive in normalizing both policy and the balance sheet.

Sure enough, futs are moving up….



#MBNGA…. “make bad news great again”!

And sure enough, the odds of a Fed hike by the end of the year have fallen back below 40% as January 2018 fed fund futs show ~34% odds of a rate hike by year-end after July CPI miss compared to ~ 40% probability before the release.



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