On Tuesday evening, we took a look at what the S&P did in the lead-up to three previous instances of U.S. military engagement.
In short, stocks tend to get a little nervous as armed conflicts undergo the transformation from “operations” to formalized “interventions” or outright “wars.”
If you missed it, here’s a look at S&P performance prior to Desert Storm, the Iraq War, and the Libya intervention, in order:
Well given the nature of the current “spat” between Trump and Kim, a more useful comparison may be the Cuban Missile Crisis.
And on that score, there’s good news both for equity investors and the low vol. regime.
As the following chart shows, the “buy the nuclear war dip” phenomenon isn’t entirely new:
And as for the low vol. regime, it seems that “mean reversion” isn’t new either…
So what are you waiting for? The S&P is still red as we write these lines. Get to work.
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