Options Market Turns Most Bullish On Euro Since November

If the ECB and Vitor Constancio thought they were going to be able to put the genie back in the bottle after Draghi sent the euro surging to a one-year high with his Tuesday comments about the central bank looking through transitory weakness in inflation, they were sorely mistaken.

Because EURUSD has now rebounded, hitting 1.1391 at one point, pushing the broad dollar to a fresh session low amid what Bloomberg amusingly calls “an overabundance of central bank speak.” Here’s the latest from the panel discussion at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal:

  • USD losses led by a resurgent pound after BOE’s Carney cautioned there’s a limit to how much BOE can tolerate above target inflation; Carney is speaking on an ECB panel in Portugal.
  • EUR rebounded after initial Draghi remarks failed to deliver the pushback on EUR gains that began yesterday; EUR traders whipsawed after currency dropped below 1.1300 on word that such pushback would be seen.
  • Offers in place at 1.1400, stops above.
  • Some information comes from foreign exchange traders familiar with the transactions who asked not to be identified because they are not authorized to speak publicly.

Got it. Here’s what that looks like for the single currency:’

EURUSD

Meanwhile, demand for euro upside in the options market is readily apparent as EURUSD one-month 25d risk reversals rose a fifth day, to reflect the most bullish sentiment in the pair since November 9, when calls traded in a premium of as much as 120bps.

EURUSDRR

As Bloomberg noted this morning, it’s important to remember that “although Draghi might have sent the euro soaring with his hawkish talk Tuesday, the fuel for the move had already been provided by this year’s climb in relative bond yields”…

USTBUND

Recall what SocGen wrote overnight: “the 10year Treasury/Bund spread is down to 184bp, the lowest level since November 9, and over 50bp tighter than the late December peak. That version of US dollar interest rate support, at least, has moved a long way and while it won’t go on in a straight line (Italian inflation this morning is the next hurdle) the trend in relative rates is unlikely to turn dollar-positive again.”

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