What Do Government Bond Yields Know About The French Election That Everything Else Doesn’t?

Back in February, dramatic richening in the front-end of the German curve garnered quite a bit of attention. It was, as we called it, a "holy Schatz" moment. Some commentators were quick to attribute plunging German 2Y yields to a flight-to-safety bid as Marine Le Pen's odds of winning the French presidency rose. That theory was seemingly debunked when the impact of ECB buying below the depo rate was laid bare: (BofAML) A little more than a month on, and most indicators have "Le Pen risk" d