Heisenberg Effect Hits Hard: Scotch, Cocktail Demand Plunge, Goldman Gives Up

Regular readers are aware that the “Heisenberg Effect” is showing up everywhere you look.

Earlier this month, I noted that my abstention from alcohol (beginning in late November) seems to be having a knock-on effect in the US beer market. As I put it:

There are market consequences when an enormous, previously reliable source of insatiable demand suddenly dries up.

Then, just three weeks later, we got further evidence that a dramatic shift in the Heisenberg consumption mix is rippling through markets and triggering profound shifts in supply/demand when the National Coffee Association reported that coffee consumption recently soared to its highest level in three years on “consumer enthusiasm for gourmet coffee varieties, exponential growth in single-cup brewing, and dramatic increases in espresso- based beverages.”

Well it was just a matter of time before all of this came full circle and hit the market most affected by the great Heisenberg sobriety push: liquor.

On Thursday, Goldman threw in the towel, cutting Diageo to “Sell” citing a “US slowdown.”


One of the problems: plunging demand for scotch and cocktails…


Alas, I cannot confidently predict a return to the glory days anytime soon.

Yours truly on a Friday,


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One thought on “Heisenberg Effect Hits Hard: Scotch, Cocktail Demand Plunge, Goldman Gives Up

  1. Price elasticity of demand and substitutes … what gives???

    Prices of craft beer and single malt (two items in a market basket I closely track) seem to be defying gravity in my geographic locale … over the past couple of years or so, the retail price of a 12-pack of craft brew has about doubled and shows no sign of mitigating … single malt Scotch pricing doesn’t seem to have been quite as ‘hockey stickish’–however, has still shown dramatic and persistent price inflation …

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