Heisenberg Effect Strikes Again As Coffee Demand Soars Most Since 2014

As the Heisenberg crowd is acutely aware, I almost died in late November. Quite literally.

My pancreas shut down, I was shipped off for a two-week stay in ICU, I had multiple seizures, and there for a minute, it looked like my blood might have to be spun through a centrifuge.

That’s a true story.

As it turns out, you can indeed drink yourself to death’s doorstep.

And so, I quit. Drinking alcohol that is. Shortly thereafter my “work product” improved dramatically (who knew?). And my output skyrocketed.

As far as consumption goes, I substituted coffee and as I observed in “US Beer Market Hit By Heisenberg Effect,” the effect on markets was immediately apparent. As noted, there are market consequences when an enormous, previously reliable source of insatiable demand suddenly dries up, and as you can see from the following set of charts, it looks as though my abstention from liquor is having a knock-on effect in the US beer market…

Beer2

Well on Saturday, we got the latest bit of evidence that the “Heisenberg switch” from spirits to caffeine is having a dramatic impact on global supply/demand.

Consider the following from Bloomberg (regular readers will recall my affinity for espresso and my recent purchase of a cappuccino machine, well documented in these pages):

  • Number of Americans drinking coffee on a daily basis rose to 62% this year from 57% in 2016, New York-based National Coffee Association says Saturday at its annual conference in Austin, Texas.
    • The increase brings consumption back above 2014 levels, reversing slow declines since 2013: NCA
    • Drivers behind increase include “consumer enthusiasm for gourmet coffee varieties across most demographics” and “robust” gains among younger consumers
    • Daily drinking by consumers aged 13-18 years rose to 37% from 31% in previous year
    • Consumption among those 40-59 years old jumped to 64% from 53%, rebounding to levels seen in 2014
    • When singling out gourmet beverages, including espresso- based beverages, changes are even more dramatic for most groups
    • Single-cup brewing keeps growing “exponentially,” with 33% of American households now owning brewer using that technology, up from 29% in 2016
    • Ownership has grown nearly five-fold”

Here’s the official confirmation:

*****

Who said Heisenberg doesn’t move markets?

100-5703-BLK-F01

 

 

 

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