Beware The German “Hump”

I've talked tirelessly (well, I haven't gotten tired of it, maybe you have) about the extent to which markets are or aren't correctly pricing event risk around Europe's trio of electoral trials by fire. For obvious reasons, the French elections have gotten the most attention. That's probably justified given the fact that there's a non-negligible chance that France accidentally elects a populist lunatic with designs on taking her country out of the EMU, a move that would i) effectively mark the