FX lira mexico turkey

Gun To Your Head, Which Do You Go Long: Mexican Peso Or Turkish Lira?

"Choose wisely"...

So in case you haven't noticed, both Mexico and Turkey are careening headlong towards currency crises. In Mexico's case, traders are of course concerned about the impact Donald Trump's trade policies will have on the economy. For more (and for a good laugh) see "Mexico To Buy Twitter?" In Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has basically gone full-autocrat-retard in his quest to consolidate power and stamp out any semblance of dissent. He's also decided he's a rates strategist. Henceforth, high interest rates are tantamount to high treason and the central bank is basically scared to death to hike. You can read the full backstory in "Cold Turkey: Currency Crisis Looms For NATO’s Favorite Autocrat" and for those who want a bit more in the way of color, see "More Cold Turkey: Is It A Currency Crisis Or Not?" Here's a look at the performance of the peso and the lira over the past 12 months: "Given the plunge, it's time to take a flyer on at least one of these" - said no one, anywhere, ever. Still, Goldman is out on Friday essentially asking itself the following question: "If someone put a gun to our head and forced us to get long one of the two currencies, which would
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3 comments on “Gun To Your Head, Which Do You Go Long: Mexican Peso Or Turkish Lira?

  1. Anonymous says:

    Just buy the gun!

  2. Jeff says:

    I agree with GS. Peso has less political risk because so much is already baked into the cake. The rumor has been sold, and they may be back to buy the news when reality comes to pass.

    Turkey is a shit show, and political risk is off the charts, especially when it’s increasingly concentrated in one man.

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