As Europe basks in the glory of half-assed PMI prints and even more half-assed inflation data (both of which only look good when compared to recessionary prints), there’s a fundamental problem.
How do you reconcile this…
(Chart: Barclays)
… with this…
Some color from Barclays:
With earnings growth potentially the key driver of stock market returns, one might be tempted to think that the prospects for European stocks in 2017 are challenged. After all, European companies haven’t grown earnings in over half a decade. The poor performance of European companies on earnings is even more striking when compared to the US. At a time when US companies have managed to grow earnings to levels well above prior-cycle highs, European company earnings are still languishing near prior-cycle lows
What’s the stock buyback situation for European markets? I suspect EuroCorps did not follow the US in that buybacks (more regulation?) and hence the divergence. Still, it won’t help once the market crashes, it just crashes from an already lower level that’s all.