“It’s The Economy, Stupid”: January Preview

Well here we are. It’s January, which means in less than three weeks Donald Trump will be sworn in as king, czar, supreme leader, President of the United States.

Although keeping M&Ms (Mexicans and Muslims) out of the country and keeping Twitter in business seem to be at the top of the new president’s agenda, we’re told that the economy is right up there as well. On Saturday, I brought you a handy flow chart from Citi who – bless their hearts – did their best to try and summarize what we know about Trump’s economic policies thus far. For those who missed it, here’s the graphic:

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(Citi)

Well don’t forget that next week, we’ll get the latest NFP number which will be used as fodder for Trump no matter how it prints. If it’s disappointing, the current administration will be blamed and the new commander-in-chief will remind everyone that he’ll be riding in to save the day in what, by the time we get the data, will be close to two weeks. If it’s a beat, Trump will invariably take credit for it just as he did the latest consumer confidence number.

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In any event, here’s a bit of color and perspective on the jobs market Trump will inherit followed by an economic calendar for January.

From Bloomberg:

Non-farm payrolls in November came in at 178,000, the fourth-worst situation among the 10 incoming presidents included in this analysis, though still a massive improvement from the nearly 770,000 jobs lost around Election Day 2008. The 4.6 percent jobless rate in the same month puts Trump in a better situation than five of the previous six presidents — the exception being President George W. Bush, who won the election in 2000 when the unemployment rate was under 4 percent.

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(Chart: Bloomberg)

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(Calendar: Citi)

 

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