Bad news for stocks?
U.S. Sept. Nonfarm Payrolls Fell 33k
Avg. hourly earnings 0.5% m/m, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
“Still, like it or not, traders will scream about, and trade on, misses or beats of statistically meaningless amounts to a number whose meaning will only be really known in hindsight.”
“Well, that’s nothing to be proud of, Rusty…. 50 yaaaards.”
Ok, it’s time for everyone to try and read the tea leaves from the August jobs report, although honestly, this seems like one of those cases where most of what you need to know is in the headline prints. Now that doesn’t mean there aren’t some juicy nuggets (not the McDonald’s ones Trump likes) buried…
You want a reason to be dovish, you’ve got one now.
Well, it’s jobs day and there are a couple of ways you can approach the August print.
Ok, so the overarching narrative for this week shouldn’t be materially different from last week – people will be concerned about the same things, namely the looming debt ceiling debate, the odds of a government shutdown which ebb and flow with whatever shows up on Trump’s Twitter feed, and the fallout from North Korea’s latest…
“The greatest jobs President that God ever created.”
“…and I have only just begun.”
U.S. July Nonfarm Payrolls Rose 209k; Unemp. Rate at 4.3%
Avg. hourly earnings 0.3% m/m, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%; Y/y 2.5%, prior 2.5% est. 2.4%
Well, here’s hoping this week lives up to last week…
U.S. June Nonfarm Payrolls Rose 222k; Unemp. Rate at 4.4%
Avg. hourly earnings 0.2% m/m, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%
If you were following along last week, then you already know what to look for in the week ahead. After the hawkish procession in Sintra, Portugal, which catalyzed an impressive euro rally and led directly to sharply higher DM rates, it’s now all about how markets attempt to price the beginning of the end for accommodative…
The “retail apocalypse” story has become so ubiquitous at this point that I’m reasonably sure “Joe the plumber” would short CMBX 6 BBB- if he could. And although there are plenty of folks out there who will tell you that reports of brick and mortar’s imminent demise may be exaggerated, I’m willing to bet that…