How many times have you heard that we’re nearing the “end of cycle” lately?
Or that the jobs market is effectively hitting on all cylinders as we rapidly approach (and surpass) full employment?
Indeed, the fear now seems to be that the Fed will need to lean against the fiscal wind and hike more aggressively (beware the dreaded “dots” which now show the FOMC will hike three times as opposed to two in 2017) in order keep the economy from “running hot” once Trump’s still indeterminate fiscal stimulus plan gives the reflation trade an added shot of adrenaline.
And how about stocks? If there’s any truth at all to Bernanke’s trickle down “wealth effect” (wherein inflated 401Ks prompt consumers to spend, spend, spend) then we should be in for one helluva ride with the Dow closing in on 20K, right?
Well if all of this is true, then one wonders what’s up with the following out today from WSJ…
Almost 40% of young Americans were living with their parents, siblings or other relatives in 2015, the largest percentage since 1940, according to an analysis of census data by real estate tracker Trulia.
Despite a rebounding economy and recent job growth, the share of those between the ages of 18 and 34 doubling up with parents or other family members has been rising since 2005. Back then, before the start of the last recession, roughly one out of three were living with family.
The trend runs counter to that of previous economic cycles, when after a recession-related spike, the number of younger Americans living with relatives declined as the economy improved.
We’re going to need a bigger comb over…
Maybe they don’t have the cajones to go it alone. Bodes badly for the future.