Goodbye 50?
While previewing this week’s US inflation update, I wrote that if you’re in the camp
God Save Our Pets
“In Springfield, they’re eating the dogs!” Donald Trump boomed, to incredulous chuckles from Kamala Harris
Bear Goggles
The lead-up to Wednesday’s US CPI release wasn’t the most exciting tape to watch. Any
Typical American Family Got Richer Last Year, Government Imagines
Do you feel richer? In real terms? Or in any other terms for that matter?
Fed Should Take A Hint From Commodities
If the global economy’s holding up — and I’ll readily admit to positing a bit
Great Leap Backwards
Different month, same contrast. The much-discussed divergence between China’s outbound shipments and imports was on
Disconnects And The Fed’s Ever-Present Reflexivity Problem
As discussed at some length in “Who You Gonna Believe?,” one of the key market
‘Oh Snap! Did I Short Into The Lows?’
“Oh snap! Did I short into the lows?” That’s what at least some traders thought
Bond Market Says Fed Has Never Been Further Behind
Pundits will say whatever pundits say, but the market thinks the Fed’s behind the curve.
Yardeni, Wilson Cite Yen Carry Trade As Key Factor In Fed Debate
If you’re the Fed, there are good arguments against coming out swinging with a 50bps
The Unfolding Tragedy Of Xi Jinping’s China
China could’ve ruled the world. All the government in Beijing had to do was pretend
Belle Époque
One’s a recovering alcoholic who still drinks wine “responsibly” and dreams of starting her own
US Inflation Update, ECB Rate Cut On Deck As Stocks Try To Recover
I’d say the size of the first Fed rate cut will be decided this week,
Accursed Month
Goldman’s Scott Rubner was right. Markets were, as it turns out, predisposed to pre-trading a
There’s A Bear In There
The holiday-shortened US trading week wasn’t kind to equities. The world’s benchmark risk asset par
She’s Coming For The Millions You Don’t Have
Admittedly, I don’t have a lot of patience for the tax debate in America. Maybe
Buy The Dip? No. Sell The Cut.
The Fed’s likely to cut “aggressively” and when it comes to risk assets, it’s best
‘Decisive’ US Jobs Report Comes Up Inconclusive
Those looking for definitive answers to the myriad macro questions confronting investors and policymakers on
Money Fund Cash Mountain Reaches $6.3 Trillion
Can cash be a “bubble”? I don’t think so. But if cash bubbles were a
Who You Gonna Believe? Stocks, Bonds Tell Divergent Recession Stories
One of the key macro-market talking points headed into this month said benchmark equities (i.e.,
Macron Incurs Ire Of French Left With Barnier Appointment
I’d be remiss on Thursday not to briefly mention Emmanuel Macron’s decision to appoint Michel
Mighty US Services Sector Thumbs Nose At Recession Narrative
The biggest part of the world’s largest economy held up in August, closely-watched survey data
US Private Hiring Cools Sharply As Job Cuts ‘Surge’
US private sector employers added fewer than 100,000 jobs in August, ADP said Thursday. The
US Jobless Claims Fall Again. Unit Labor Costs Rise Least In A Decade
If markets needed an offset for a weak read on US private sector hiring, jobless
Goldman’s Rubner Sees Scope For Larger Correction Before Late-Year Rally
The market’s pre-trading a challenging seasonal that normally waits until the back-half of September to
Dispersion Pods ‘Soul-Punched’ In Wall Street’s Latest Vol Shock
On Wednesday, Bloomberg reported that multi-strategy hedge funds managed to get through August largely unscathed.
Cut Calculus
The US curve disinversion looks to have some staying power. The 2s10s turned positive Wednesday
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