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Featured

Kharg In The Crosshairs

March 14, 2026March 14, 2026
  • Weekly: War Comes To The US Front-End

    March 13, 2026March 13, 2026
  • Mideast Wars, High Gas Prices Still Unpopular (Who Knew?)

    March 13, 2026March 13, 2026
  • Iran Oil Blowback Has World Over A Barrel

    March 13, 2026March 13, 2026

politics

‘The Caravan Of Martyrs’

March 12, 2026March 13, 2026
  • The Tankers Are On Fire

    March 12, 2026March 13, 2026
  • Mines And Mischief

    March 11, 2026March 12, 2026
  • Peace Through Fire And Fury

    March 10, 2026March 11, 2026
  • Iran War ‘Very Complete.’ ‘Pretty Much’

    March 9, 2026March 10, 2026

Markets

Stocks In War

March 12, 2026March 13, 2026
  • Market Derelict On Oil Inflation Risk, Albert Edwards Says

    March 12, 2026March 13, 2026
  • Two Crazy Charts And A Wildly Bullish Backtest

    March 11, 2026March 12, 2026
  • Will Oracle’s Cloud Growth Stanch The Bleeding?

    March 10, 2026March 11, 2026
  • Canaries And Eye Candy From Inside The AI Bubble

    March 10, 2026March 11, 2026

Duly Noted+

Fed’s Favorite Core Inflation Measure Hit Multi-Year High Before War

March 13, 2026March 13, 2026

Priced For Chaos When Nothing Ever Happens

March 11, 2026March 12, 2026

Economy

US Economy Gets Sharp Downgrade In Stagflationary GDP Update

March 13, 2026March 14, 2026

Cool Inflation Report Is Old News In Hot War

March 11, 2026March 12, 2026

In US Housing, A Faint Pulse. But That’s It.

March 10, 2026March 11, 2026

Following The “Three Wise Markets”

December 19, 2016

Boy, oh boy, the Christmas metaphors are in full effect over on the sellside. Thankfully

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Ushering Out 2016 With A Chuckle

December 19, 2016

If laughter is truly the best medicine and you happen to be sick with something,

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3 Comments on Ushering Out 2016 With A Chuckle

Daily Kickstart With Deutsche Bank

December 19, 2016

Well the dollar took a break on its march higher versus the yen on Monday,

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oil1 Comment on Daily Kickstart With Deutsche Bank

Majority Of Americans Say Trump Too Friendly With Russia/Putin: Poll

December 18, 2016

One topic that’s grabbed its share of headlines is the degree to which President-elect Donald

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1 Comment on Majority Of Americans Say Trump Too Friendly With Russia/Putin: Poll

These Are The States That Would Be Most Hurt If Trump Rips Up NAFTA

December 18, 2016

Donald Trump likes to extol the virtues of “good” deals. He also likes to bemoan

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2 Comments on These Are The States That Would Be Most Hurt If Trump Rips Up NAFTA

This Graphic Shows Which Countries Are Most Vulnerable To A Soaring Dollar

December 17, 2016

If there’s anything analysts seem sure of right now, it’s that a stronger dollar is

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2 Comments on This Graphic Shows Which Countries Are Most Vulnerable To A Soaring Dollar

Breaking Down Policy Shift By Country

December 17, 2016

One of the themes at the forefront of everyone’s mind (well, at the forefront but

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Here’s What China Thinks Of Europe According To Web Search Results

December 17, 2016

If you want to have yourself some fun, play around one day with Google’s autocomplete.

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1 Comment on Here’s What China Thinks Of Europe According To Web Search Results

A Look Back At 8 Years Of QE

December 17, 2016

Well, we’re coming to the end of an era. The median Fed dots now presage

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Here Are Donald Trump’s Four Policy “Arrows”

December 17, 2016

One of the most pervasive themes (perhaps the most pervasive) in the post-election world is

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“Higher Rates Are Coming To Town”

December 17, 2016December 17, 2016

Oh dear lord. This is what passes for humor on the sellside (from Wells Fargo’s Nathaniel

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A Look Back At The Day That Was (Friday)

December 16, 2016

Well, the day ended pretty much as it started – with a reversal of recent

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Barclays Surveys 885 Investors – Here’s What They Found

December 16, 2016December 16, 2016

I’ve said it until I’m blue in the face (or maybe “yellow in the face”

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1 Comment on Barclays Surveys 885 Investors – Here’s What They Found

More Post-Fed, End Of Year Chatter

December 16, 2016

Reactions to the Fed’s “hawkish” dot plot shift are still trickling in from all over

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Presenting “Truth Trump”

December 16, 2016

You know, I have seen (not to mention penned) some pretty damning indictments of dishonest

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Assessing OPEC/Non-OPEC Production Cut Compliance

December 16, 2016December 16, 2016

I’ve been skeptical about the OPEC/non-OPEC production cuts since day one. As I outlined earlier

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The Dollar Has Become A “High Yielder”

December 16, 2016

We all know the USD has been on fire of late, thanks in no small

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Daily Kickstart

December 16, 2016

Gold is up, 10Y yields are slightly lower, the dollar is marginally weaker against the

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A Look Back At The Day That Was

December 16, 2016

For those who might have missed any of Thursday’s action or for anyone who just

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1 Comment on A Look Back At The Day That Was

Syria: There Is No “Right” Side

December 15, 2016December 16, 2016

I’ll confess that I’m hopelessly torn when it comes to Syria’s five year old, bloody

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1 Comment on Syria: There Is No “Right” Side

2016 Performance Revisited And Deutsche’s 2017 Equity Outlook

December 15, 2016

As 2016 comes to a close with US risk on a veritable tear thanks to

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1 Comment on 2016 Performance Revisited And Deutsche’s 2017 Equity Outlook

Presenting Deutsche Bank’s “Visual Guide To The Fed”

December 14, 2016

No one ever accused the Fed of producing compelling reading material. For a group of

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The Black Swans Cometh

December 14, 2016

Want to see something scary? Look no further than SocGen’s latest black swan chart, which

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As Expected, Fed Hikes Rates (Here’s Everything You Need To Know)

December 14, 2016December 14, 2016

Well, it was always all about the dots and we did get a little drama

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1 Comment on As Expected, Fed Hikes Rates (Here’s Everything You Need To Know)

Syrian Girl Tweets “Last Message”, Claims Assad Staging “Genocide”

December 14, 2016

Oh look, here’s one of those Syrian “bandits” (note the sarcasm) that are trapped in

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3 Comments on Syrian Girl Tweets “Last Message”, Claims Assad Staging “Genocide”

Syrian Rebels Say Iran, Russia Already Breaking Aleppo Cease Fire As Civilians Attempt To Flee

December 14, 2016

Well, who could have predicted this? Just hours after a cease-fire was set to go

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1 Comment on Syrian Rebels Say Iran, Russia Already Breaking Aleppo Cease Fire As Civilians Attempt To Flee

The Fed Can’t “Err Dovish”

December 14, 2016

For those of us who just can’t get enough when it comes to analysis of

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Monthly Letters

42

March 6, 2026March 6, 2026

Resignation

January 30, 2026January 30, 2026

The Noriega Analogue

January 3, 2026January 3, 2026

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