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Featured

The Dark Side Of Liquidity: The Genealogy Of The AI Arms Race

November 9, 2026
  • Buy The Dip? (Honeypot Training)

    November 9, 2026November 9, 2026
  • What Are Treasurys Telling Us?

    November 9, 2026November 9, 2026
  • Megaspeed Indeed. (Two Huangs Don’t Make A Right)

    November 9, 2026November 9, 2026

Markets

Jensen Got Honey-Trapped

November 8, 2026November 9, 2026
  • Weekly: Melodrama

    November 7, 2026November 9, 2026
  • ‘Dem Fatale’ Crashes The AI Party

    November 6, 2026November 8, 2026
  • On Wall Street: Crash And F’in’ Burn

    November 5, 2026November 7, 2026
  • Did Democrats Just Kill ‘New 60/40’?

    November 5, 2026November 6, 2026

economy

Inflation Week!

November 8, 2026November 9, 2026
  • Inflation Fatalism Has Set In

    November 6, 2026November 8, 2026
  • Drunken Monkey Darts

    November 6, 2026November 8, 2026
  • ‘Tis The Season! For Temporary Fulfillment Jobs

    November 5, 2026November 6, 2026
  • Senseless Iran War Triggers BoE Hike, 5% Inflation Warning

    November 5, 2026November 5, 2026

Geopolitics

Rasputin Presiding

November 8, 2026November 9, 2026

Tsunami

November 4, 2026November 5, 2026

Let’s Talk Blue Waves

November 1, 2026November 2, 2026

Duly Noted

US Jobless Claims Chase History

November 5, 2026November 7, 2026

Tech Got No Love This Earnings Season

November 3, 2026November 8, 2026

Trump’s Wiretap Story “Is Less Plausible Than A Zombie Invasion”

March 10, 2017

“Loopier still is to demand that Congress find the truth when the president could just pick up the phone and instruct the FBI, CIA and DNI to declare on the record whether this ever occurred.”

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“Wait For Iiiit….” Crude’s Epic Collapse Is Warning Sign For Another Massively “Consensus” Trade

March 10, 2017March 10, 2017

Ok, now that NFP is out of the way, it’s time for some humor (interspersed,

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oil, OPEC3 Comments on “Wait For Iiiit….” Crude’s Epic Collapse Is Warning Sign For Another Massively “Consensus” Trade

“This Is Goldilocks Data”: Was The Jobs Number Just Right?

March 10, 2017

“This is Goldilocks data – just right for Fed to hike, but not enough to accelerate what is already priced in.”

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1 Comment on “This Is Goldilocks Data”: Was The Jobs Number Just Right?

Meanwhile, Over At The Propaganda Ministry: “Great Again,” “Sizzling”, “Jaw-Dropping”, “!”

March 10, 2017

Count the superlatives…

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“WAM!” The “Holy Schatz” Mystery Is Solved

March 10, 2017March 10, 2017

Recall last month’s “holy Schatz!” drama. The front end of the German curve richened materially

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February Jobs Report Beats, AHE Misses

March 10, 2017

U.S. Jobless Rate Falls to 4.7% in Feb., Payrolls Rise 235K
Nonfarm payrolls forecast est. 200k, range 150k-275k from 89 economists surveyed
Nonfarm payrolls, net revisions, added 9k from prior two months
Participation rate 63% vs prior 62.9%
Avg. hourly earnings 0.2% m/m, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%

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1 Comment on February Jobs Report Beats, AHE Misses

“The Future May Depend On It”: Full Jobs Hype Retard

March 10, 2017March 10, 2017

“We all know animal spirits and inflationary expectations are contagious. If they can grow in the U.S. as something manifested more widely than inflated equity prices, it has the potential to spread elsewhere and could ignite a virtuous cycle”

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1 Comment on “The Future May Depend On It”: Full Jobs Hype Retard

Please Fasten Your Seat Belts, Jobs Report Ahead

March 10, 2017March 10, 2017

So obviously it was a relatively quiet overnight session as the entire world focuses on

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This Is The “Linchpin” For The Dollar

March 10, 2017March 10, 2017

“Friday’s U.S. payrolls report might have little bearing on next week’s Federal Reserve decision, after top officials clearly indicated readiness to raise rates March 15. But…”

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1 Comment on This Is The “Linchpin” For The Dollar

Key Calls (Friday): Upgrades, Downgrades & Initiations

March 10, 2017

Are your stocks on the list?

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“Fuck The Facts!”: What Donald Trump Learned From Big Tobacco

March 9, 2017March 9, 2017

“Doubt is our product.” Why? Because doubt “is the best means of competing with the ‘body of fact’ that exists in the mind of the general public. It is also the means of establishing a controversy.”

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It’s The Big One! What To Make Of Friday’s All-Important Number

March 9, 2017

Listen, if you’ve lost the plot line don’t worry because everyone else has too. Just

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4 Comments on It’s The Big One! What To Make Of Friday’s All-Important Number

This Is What It Looks Like When Everyone Starts Selling Their “Junk”

March 9, 2017

Over the course of the last two days, I’ve suggested that perhaps the junk bond bubble

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More Trouble

March 9, 2017

I don’t know if maybe you noticed, but this is playing out exactly like I

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oil, OPEC1 Comment on More Trouble

“What You Got Was The Exact Opposite”: Macro Hedge Funds Join The “Dumb” Money

March 9, 2017

I swear to God I’m starting to think that before this is all over, index

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hedge fundsLeave a Comment on “What You Got Was The Exact Opposite”: Macro Hedge Funds Join The “Dumb” Money

So Yeeahhh… About That Reflation Thing

March 9, 2017

“While investors may return to the reflation narrative again, it’ll take more than a few political speeches to get them there.”

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Wells Fargo Offers To Address Heisenberg’s Concerns – “No Account Numbers” Necessary

March 9, 2017March 9, 2017

They’re just trying to help, dammit.

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Albert Edwards: “2008 Is Going To Look Like A Soft-Landing When The Fed Blows This Sucker Sky High”

March 9, 2017

Ok, so if you’re bearish, a market skeptic, or otherwise prone to cynicism, you know that when SocGen’s Albert f*cking Edwards comes stomping through, you just have to sit your ass down and let the master do his thing…

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1 Comment on Albert Edwards: “2008 Is Going To Look Like A Soft-Landing When The Fed Blows This Sucker Sky High”

“Animal Spirits”: An American Tragedy

March 9, 2017

Not sure this was what Keynes had in mind…

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Dammit, Who’s “Sherlock” Here? BofAML Weighs In On A Fed That’s Behind The Curve

March 9, 2017

“While this has allowed the Fed to have its cake and eat it too at the March meeting, in our view there could be a bigger sign from the markets to the Fed: financial conditions could be at the cusp of signaling that policy is behind the curve.”

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“It Means A Financial Crisis” Any Questions?

March 9, 2017

I really, really hope that I’m not right about France. But the setup is hard to

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4 Comments on “It Means A Financial Crisis” Any Questions?

Oil Erases Entire OPEC Cut Rally: “And Like That, It’s Gone”

March 9, 2017March 9, 2017

Well goddammit I told you so. I don’t how many times I’ve said that oil

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oil, OPEC2 Comments on Oil Erases Entire OPEC Cut Rally: “And Like That, It’s Gone”

Key Calls (Thursday): Upgrades, Downgrades & Initiations

March 9, 2017

Are your stocks on the list?

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Leave a Comment on Key Calls (Thursday): Upgrades, Downgrades & Initiations

“I Think It’s Safe To Say Everyone Will Take A Glass Half-Full Approach”

March 9, 2017

“I think it’s safe to say that given the current mood among traders, they will be squarely focused on the glass half-full elements rather than grasp at signs for temperance.”

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“Please Let There Be A Cute Girl There With Glitter” Or, Your Last Minute ECB Preview

March 9, 2017March 9, 2017

As Bloomberg notes, “while the ECB is unlikely to surprise today, the central bank meeting

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After A Rough Start, It’s Been “Smooth” Sailing

March 8, 2017

“After 62 weeks, the present cycle has had the fewest corrections (six times) relative to other hiking cycles (Chart 3). By contrast, the equity market was turbulent during the 1999-2000 hiking cycle with 14 weekly corrections of at least 1.5% in 52 weeks.”

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Did WikiLeaks Just Become Donald Trump’s CIA?

March 8, 2017March 8, 2017

“Perhaps Trump is staying silent because he stands to benefit from WikiLeaks’ latest revelations”…

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Monthly Letter

  • The Arbitrageur

Recent Comments

  • Frederic MARI on Buy The Dip? (Honeypot Training)
  • Frederic MARI on Buy The Dip? (Honeypot Training)
  • SeaTurtle on The Dark Side Of Liquidity: The Genealogy Of The AI Arms Race
  • T-Dog on Megaspeed Indeed. (Two Huangs Don’t Make A Right)

Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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