February Jobs Report Beats, AHE Misses

Estimates and priors

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 200,000, prior 227,000
Change in Private Payrolls, est. 215,000, prior 237,000
Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. 10,000, prior 5,000
Unemployment Rate, est. 4.7%, prior 4.8%
Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%
Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 2.75%, prior 2.5%
Average Weekly Hours All Employees, est. 34.4, prior 34.4
Labor Force Participation Rate, prior 62.9%
Underemployment Rate, prior 9.4%

Actual

  • U.S. Jobless Rate Falls to 4.7% in Feb., Payrolls Rise 235K
  • Nonfarm payrolls forecast est. 200k, range 150k-275k from 89 economists surveyed
  • Nonfarm payrolls, net revisions, added 9k from prior two months
  • Participation rate 63% vs prior 62.9%
  • Avg. hourly earnings 0.2% m/m, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
    • Y/y 2.8%, prior 2.8% est. 2.8%
  • Nonfarm private payrolls rose 227k vs prior 221k; est. 215k, range 155k-276k from 39 economists surveyed
  • Manufacturing payrolls rose 28k after rising 11k in the prior month; economists estimated 10k, range 5k to 25k from 22 economists surveyed
  • Unemployment rate 4.7% vs prior 4.8%; est. 4.7%, range 4.6%-4.8% from 83 economists surveyed
  • Underemployment rate 9.2% vs prior 9.4%
  • Change in household employment 447k vs prior -30k
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