Sunday Humor (“Facts”)
“You’re saying it’s a falsehood, and Sean Spicer, our press secretary, gave alternative facts to that.â€
Chart Check (Theory Vs. Reality)
For the history buffs…
10 Black Swans
The amusing thing about this (to me anyway) is that it is to a certain extent emblematic of markets’ overwhelming tendency to misprice the tails. These pieces almost read like a guide to the unthinkable – “here’s what happens if everything just goes to complete sh*t”…
“Tweet Risk” Is Now Officially Part Of The Wall Street Lexicon
Analysts are now forced to take Trump’s tweets into account when commenting on the prospects for specific stocks. That, in turn, has led to the contention that idiosyncratic risk will almost invariably rise during Trump’s presidency. It’s thus very possible that Donald Trump could single-handedly bring about a shift in inter-market correlations.
Caption Contest (Epic Michelle Obama Inauguration Edition)
Not feelin’ it…
Chart Check (“I Am An Oil Man”)
I’m not at al all sure that this is a good idea…
Uncertainty, “The Highly Improbable”, Goldman Sachs, And Some Swamp Draining
The “highly improbable” has become more probable lately. At least that’s my contention. The paradox –
“Once In A Lifetime” Amazon Short Idea Versus Treasury Positioning Black Swan
An observation. Well, more of a thought experiment…
“We The People”… A Message For Donald Trump
A subtle reminder on inauguration day.
Chart Check (How Will Stocks Close On Inauguration Day?)
Dow 20,000 by 4 p.m. EST?
Yours Truly On Inauguration Eve…
On Wednesday night I had a terrible dream. Let me tell you all about it…
One Trader’s Take On Trump’s Inauguration Speech
“Markets will be shy about a knee-jerk buy-the-rumor, sell- the-fact reaction. But those so inclined will be just as watchful and eager for the right time to do it.”
Trump: 3 Scenarios For Markets
Wondering how markets will perform under Trump? Of course you are. Since no one is sure
Big Trouble In Little China
Given that today is Donald Trump’s coronation, it’s somewhat ironic that we begin in China, where the Politburo was kind enough to tell us what they want us to think GDP is.
Daily Kickstart (The Day The Earth Stood Still)
The Ringling Bros. may have pulled up the stakes for good, but the circus is in town today in Washington, complete with all of the usual attractions including an orange elephant, who at 12 noon will “trump”et to an awestruck crowd.
Inauguration Day: Last Minute Analysis From Wall Street
“Investors appear to be struggling to reconcile the policies of President-Elect Donald Trump with those of candidate Donald Trump”…
Chart Check (Hedge Fund Performance Edition)
This is what “2 and 20” gets you…
It’s Time To Start Worrying About FX Vol
I think it’s probably time to start getting concerned about FX vol. This morning’s dovish
Peak Trump?
“Trump’s election is the news equivalent of a financial crisis.”
What “Great Rotation”?
So by now you’ve all heard the “great rotation” theory. Hell, maybe you’ve even perpetuated
Caption Contest (Brexit Edition)
Staring contest…
Daily Kickstart (ECB Preview; Why Did Tarzan And Suicide Squad Suck So Bad?)
It feels quiet out there on Thursday morning. On Wednesday, a fairly potent one-two punch
Black Swans Everywhere: Hedge Fund Positions By Standard Deviation
There’s been no shortage of commentary both in these pages and elsewhere about just how
Full Energy Retard
Some of the most incredible charts you’ll ever see are those depicting spread compression in
Chart Check (Spot The Odd One Out)
Reflections on the reflation trinity…
The Trend May Bend, “But Will It Break”?
“Trends go through life cycles. There’s more to them than just a big move that happens because some market theme becomes all the rage.”
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