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Featured

What Are Treasurys Telling Us?

November 9, 2026
  • Megaspeed Indeed. (Two Huangs Don’t Make A Right)

    November 9, 2026November 9, 2026
  • Jensen Got Honey-Trapped

    November 8, 2026November 8, 2026
  • Rasputin Presiding

    November 8, 2026November 8, 2026

Markets

Weekly: Melodrama

November 7, 2026November 9, 2026
  • ‘Dem Fatale’ Crashes The AI Party

    November 6, 2026November 8, 2026
  • On Wall Street: Crash And F’in’ Burn

    November 5, 2026November 7, 2026
  • Did Democrats Just Kill ‘New 60/40’?

    November 5, 2026November 6, 2026
  • Um, Excuse Me, But Your Chips Are Bleeding

    November 5, 2026November 6, 2026

economy

Inflation Fatalism Has Set In

November 6, 2026November 8, 2026
  • Drunken Monkey Darts

    November 6, 2026November 8, 2026
  • ‘Tis The Season! For Temporary Fulfillment Jobs

    November 5, 2026November 6, 2026
  • Senseless Iran War Triggers BoE Hike, 5% Inflation Warning

    November 5, 2026November 5, 2026
  • Irrepressible

    November 4, 2026November 5, 2026

Geopolitics

Tsunami

November 4, 2026November 5, 2026

Let’s Talk Blue Waves

November 1, 2026November 2, 2026

Lagarde Versus Le Pen?

October 29, 2026October 30, 2026

Duly Noted

US Jobless Claims Chase History

November 5, 2026November 7, 2026

Tech Got No Love This Earnings Season

November 3, 2026November 8, 2026

North Korea May Detonate H-Bomb In The Pacific: Yonhap

September 21, 2017September 21, 2017

“It could be the most powerful detonation of an H-bomb in the Pacific.”

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2 Comments on North Korea May Detonate H-Bomb In The Pacific: Yonhap

Goldman Asks: ‘What Is Going On With Tech?’

September 21, 2017September 21, 2017

Goldman just wants to know one thing on Thursday…

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1 Comment on Goldman Asks: ‘What Is Going On With Tech?’

What The Heck Is Goin’ On?

September 21, 2017

“The truth of the matter is that the market doesn’t know how to interpret the Fed.”

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1 Comment on What The Heck Is Goin’ On?

1 Million.

September 21, 2017September 21, 2017

“It’s not crazy”…

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1 Comment on 1 Million.

In 2020, It All Goes ‘Horribly Right’

September 21, 2017

“So hang in there, volatility longs. Only three more years ’til it all goes horribly right!”

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2 Comments on In 2020, It All Goes ‘Horribly Right’

One Chart Suggests S&P Just Did China Bulls A ‘Bigly’ Favor

September 21, 2017September 21, 2017

The point: Beijing is already predisposed to intervening in markets to offset any turmoil a sovereign downgrade might catalyze and you can bet that predisposition is stronger than ever ahead of the Party Congress.

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Leave a Comment on One Chart Suggests S&P Just Did China Bulls A ‘Bigly’ Favor

Hedge Fund Ownership Of QQQ Nearly Triples To Record High, Shorts Rise 85%

September 21, 2017

“Hedge Fund ownership is at a record high of 4.1% of AUM or $2bn. Managers increased their ownership of the ETF from 1.4% of AUM ($667mn) at the end of Q1.”

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Leave a Comment on Hedge Fund Ownership Of QQQ Nearly Triples To Record High, Shorts Rise 85%

‘Listen Up!’ Albert Edwards Wants To Talk To You About Bubbles

September 21, 2017September 21, 2017

“The Fed and BoE are once again presiding over a credit bubble, with the BoE in particular suffering a painful episode of cognitive dissonance in an effort to shift the blame elsewhere – the credit bubble is everyone’s fault but theirs.”

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3 Comments on ‘Listen Up!’ Albert Edwards Wants To Talk To You About Bubbles

Bloomberg Blasts Trump: ‘Don’t Let International Cooperation Ruin A Good Insult’

September 21, 2017

“Threatening a country with annihilation won’t hearten its neighbors. And undermining the founding principles of an institution your nation did more than any other to establish won’t help it to fulfill its promise.”

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3 Comments on Bloomberg Blasts Trump: ‘Don’t Let International Cooperation Ruin A Good Insult’

Trader: ‘The World Has Changed And You Don’t Know It’

September 21, 2017September 21, 2017

“Truth is, a lot of things are in play, and you have to start thinking about it before you’re forced to chase it.”

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Leave a Comment on Trader: ‘The World Has Changed And You Don’t Know It’

Comedy Hour Is Brought To You By: The BoJ

September 21, 2017September 21, 2017

Now if you didn’t know any better, you’d be inclined to think that any dissent as it relates to the BoJ’s lunatic policies would have to be centered around an objection to the inherent recklessness of it all. But that’s if you didn’t know any better…

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Leave a Comment on Comedy Hour Is Brought To You By: The BoJ

Goldman Answers All Of Your Questions About The September Fed Meeting

September 21, 2017September 21, 2017

Q: Will the FOMC hike the funds rate in December?
A: Yes, probably.

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1 Comment on Goldman Answers All Of Your Questions About The September Fed Meeting

S&P Cuts China Just Ahead Of Party Congress

September 21, 2017September 21, 2017

Well, the timing leaves something to be desired. 

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1 Comment on S&P Cuts China Just Ahead Of Party Congress

Key Calls (Thursday): Upgrades, Downgrades & Initiations

September 21, 2017September 21, 2017

You need an upgrade.

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I’m Out Of Bullets, How About You?

September 20, 2017September 20, 2017

Can I borrow your double-edged sword?

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7 Comments on I’m Out Of Bullets, How About You?

‘Axis Of Evil On Steroids’ – Trump’s U.N. Speech

September 20, 2017September 20, 2017

“…he severely undercut the prospects for a diplomatic solution to the crisis, making war that much more likely.”

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5 Comments on ‘Axis Of Evil On Steroids’ – Trump’s U.N. Speech

La, La, La.

September 20, 2017

Finally, in case you haven’t had enough of “connecting the dots” today, here’s another exercise for you…

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7 Comments on La, La, La.

Mueller Asks White House To Produce Documents On Trump’s Actions As President: NYT

September 20, 2017September 20, 2017

In case it wasn’t clear to you that the walls are closing in on this administration, The New York Times is out reporting that Robert Mueller has now asked the White House to produce documents related to the actions Trump has taken as President.

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Leave a Comment on Mueller Asks White House To Produce Documents On Trump’s Actions As President: NYT

Fed Decision: Highlights, Redline, Dots, Projections, Analysis

September 20, 2017September 20, 2017

“Connect the dots”…

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1 Comment on Fed Decision: Highlights, Redline, Dots, Projections, Analysis

How Charlottesville Opens (Another) Door For Russia

September 20, 2017September 20, 2017

“…throughout Europe an expanding and persistent link exists between extreme right-wing hate groups and Russia.”

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3 Comments on How Charlottesville Opens (Another) Door For Russia

‘Quite Long.’ And Quite Optimistic Too.

September 20, 2017September 20, 2017

So enjoy reveling in our confirmation bias and don’t forget to laugh at the characterization of inverse VIX ETPs as sources of “stable” carry…

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Leave a Comment on ‘Quite Long.’ And Quite Optimistic Too.

Dollar On The Move, EM Under Pressure As Fed Holds Firm On Trajectory

September 20, 2017September 20, 2017

Dollar bears on the back foot all of the sudden…

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4 Comments on Dollar On The Move, EM Under Pressure As Fed Holds Firm On Trajectory

Dollar, Yields Rise While Stocks, Gold Dip On ‘Hawkish’ Fed

September 20, 2017September 20, 2017

The Fed still sees another hike in 2017, perhaps proving that they are in fact leaning in the direction of looking through subdued inflation in the interest of safeguarding financial stability. 

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Leave a Comment on Dollar, Yields Rise While Stocks, Gold Dip On ‘Hawkish’ Fed

This Hasn’t Happened Since Brexit

September 20, 2017September 20, 2017

Sustainable? Probably not.

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‘Truman Would Have Been Appalled.’

September 20, 2017September 20, 2017

“Just as Trump has never done anything in his life that did not benefit him personally, so he cannot imagine any nation acting for the general good.”

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Two Hundred And Seventeen Years.

September 20, 2017September 20, 2017

Wouldn’t it be super-fun if someone looked at bonds and equities from 15 DM countries going back 217 years and then made an equally weighted index to find out how expensive things really are versus history? 

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3 Comments on Two Hundred And Seventeen Years.

‘Run, Forrest. Run.’

September 20, 2017September 20, 2017

“… the bears could catch up into year-end.”

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Monthly Letter

  • The Arbitrageur

Recent Comments

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  • therealheisenberg on Megaspeed Indeed. (Two Huangs Don’t Make A Right)

Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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