Markets Have Moved From ‘Central Bank Put’ To ‘Mini-Goldilocks’. Now, The Risk Of Another Regime Shift Is Rising
Even in a benign situation, a rotation could catch lopsided positioning woefully offsides.
Even in a benign situation, a rotation could catch lopsided positioning woefully offsides.
“…at this point though, the manufacturing slowdown in the EZ is so real that it risks dragging Services with it”.
It doesn’t do anybody any good to wax hyperbolic/hysteric, but…
“Rocket ships” and such.
The “melt-up” chatter is getting louder.Â
Who’s brave enough to fade this?
“They could create an ever-escalating trade war”.
A few quick points.
Eye candy for the congregation.
“Increased uncertainty.”
The lay of the land as the Fed looms.
The ultimate irony is that just six months ago…
Still cool.
“POTUS actually does believe that tariffs result in a net positive.”
“[It’s just] another important tool in the toolkit.”
We may have been duped.
“On Friday, I was convinced that we were all going to be trading MXN vol for some time. Wrong.”
Things have taken a wholly unfortunate turn into month-end.
“Why are equities so calm if the most plausible outcomes of the trade war are all bearish for growth?”
“It is more likely than not”…
“Global trade is clearly now being dragged into the mud by a ‘vicious spiral’.”
“…even if global economic and financial conditions continued to improve.”
“The reality is”…
As usual, the market will be forced to deliver the bad news.
Local stability, but mind the “bandit” at 1600 Penn.
So, fear the “rogue” inflation upside surprise, one supposes.
The discussion always comes back to liquidity…
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