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Featured

The Capex Catch-22

November 3, 2026November 3, 2026
  • Someone’s Got Work For You

    November 3, 2026November 3, 2026
  • Tech Got No Love This Earnings Season

    November 3, 2026November 3, 2026
  • Have The Hyper-Scalers Lost Their Minds?

    November 2, 2026November 2, 2026

Markets

Apple Sets A Bunch Of Records. Misses In China

November 2, 2026November 3, 2026
  • Sell-Side Sarcasm: New And Improved!

    November 2, 2026November 3, 2026
  • Weekly: The Leveraged Buildout (Speculative Gravity Control)

    October 31, 2026November 2, 2026
  • The Problem, In A Nutshell…

    October 30, 2026November 2, 2026
  • What’s What And WTF?

    October 30, 2026November 1, 2026

economy

Debbie Downers Amid The Renaissance

November 2, 2026November 3, 2026
  • Polls, Projectiles And Payrolls

    November 1, 2026November 2, 2026
  • ‘Remains Elevated’

    October 29, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Boom!

    October 29, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Dissembling Strategery

    October 28, 2026October 29, 2026

Geopolitics

Let’s Talk Blue Waves

November 1, 2026November 2, 2026

Lagarde Versus Le Pen?

October 29, 2026October 30, 2026

The Tragic Irony Of The Israeli State

October 28, 2026October 29, 2026

Duly Noted

An ARM And A Leg

October 28, 2026October 30, 2026

Not Since 1969…

October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

China Still Has No Idea What Phone Calls Trump Was Talking About

August 27, 2019August 27, 2019

“Regretfully the US has announced its decision”.

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3 Comments on China Still Has No Idea What Phone Calls Trump Was Talking About

-4% Rates By 2030? Only One Thing Can Save Us From Being Snowbound In Albert Edwards’s ‘Ice Age’ Thesis

August 26, 2019August 27, 2019

Maybe he’ll teach us how to ice fish.

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6 Comments on -46 Rates By 2030? Only One Thing Can Save Us From Being Snowbound In Albert Edwards’s ‘Ice Age’ Thesis

The History Of Trump’s Stock Market Will Show ‘A Major Inflection Point’ On This Date…

August 26, 2019August 26, 2019

History will likely do as Trump asks and “judge” his market record “from the day after the election”. The bad news is…

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7 Comments on The History Of Trump’s Stock Market Will Show ‘A Major Inflection Point’ On This Date…

Trump Would ‘Certainly’ Meet Iran’s Rouhani – With ‘Violent Force’

August 26, 2019

“Look at what they did to John Kerry”.

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2 Comments on Trump Would ‘Certainly’ Meet Iran’s Rouhani – With ‘Violent Force’

Trump’s Message To War-Weary Markets: ‘Sorry, It’s The Way I Negotiate’

August 26, 2019

“It’s done well for me over the years”.

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6 Comments on Trump’s Message To War-Weary Markets: ‘Sorry, It’s The Way I Negotiate’

CNBC’s Jim Cramer: ‘It Really Doesn’t Matter’ If The President Lies To Investors

August 26, 2019August 26, 2019

“I’m not willing to say that he’s lying”.

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13 Comments on CNBC’s Jim Cramer: ‘It Really Doesn’t Matter’ If The President Lies To Investors

BofA’s Blanch: ‘Traditional Models May Soon Be Obsolete And The World Unforecastable’

August 26, 2019August 26, 2019

A stark assessment, to be sure.

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4 Comments on BofA’s Blanch: ‘Traditional Models May Soon Be Obsolete And The World Unforecastable’

‘The Situation Is Dire’: As Business Confidence Collapses, Germany’s ‘Black Zero’ Fiscal Stance Looks Untenable

August 26, 2019

“The signs of a recession in Germany are thickening”.

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Leave a Comment on ‘The Situation Is Dire’: As Business Confidence Collapses, Germany’s ‘Black Zero’ Fiscal Stance Looks Untenable

Hong Kong, Mainland Shares Under Siege Amid Violence, Yuan Drop

August 26, 2019

No respite.

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Trump Says ‘China Called Last Night’. China Says ‘Hasn’t Heard Of Such A Thing’

August 26, 2019August 26, 2019

“I can tell you clearly that I haven’t heard of such a thing”.

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11 Comments on Trump Says ‘China Called Last Night’. China Says ‘Hasn’t Heard Of Such A Thing’

As Gloves Come Off In Trade War, Markets Worry All The Adults Have Left The Room

August 25, 2019August 26, 2019

What’s not to like?

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1 Comment on As Gloves Come Off In Trade War, Markets Worry All The Adults Have Left The Room

Mnuchin, Kudlow Tell Cable News Trump Has Authority To Order American Companies To Leave China

August 25, 2019August 25, 2019

“What can’t you order if you use the word ’emergency'”?

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11 Comments on Mnuchin, Kudlow Tell Cable News Trump Has Authority To Order American Companies To Leave China

Flash Crash Hits Turkish Lira As Yen Surge Bedevils Markets Yet Again

August 25, 2019August 25, 2019

Mrs. Watanabe.

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Offshore Yuan Dives To Record, Dollar-Yen Breaches Flash Crash Lows Amid Trade Woes

August 25, 2019August 25, 2019

It starts in FX land.

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5 Comments on Offshore Yuan Dives To Record, Dollar-Yen Breaches Flash Crash Lows Amid Trade Woes

Trade ‘Déjà Vu’ May Send 10-Year US Yields To All-Time Lows, Goldman Says

August 25, 2019August 25, 2019

The bond rally may have new life.

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Leave a Comment on Trade ‘Déjà Vu’ May Send 10-Year US Yields To All-Time Lows, Goldman Says

Macron Shakes Up Fraught G-7 With Zarif Cameo, Iran Floats Oil Exports Proposal

August 25, 2019August 25, 2019

“I can’t stop people from talking”.

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1 Comment on Macron Shakes Up Fraught G-7 With Zarif Cameo, Iran Floats Oil Exports Proposal

Watch Larry Kudlow ‘Reinterpret’ Trump’s ‘Second Thoughts’ Tariff Remark

August 25, 2019

“Having said that”…

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US, Japan Strike Trade Deal In Principle, Trump Says

August 25, 2019August 25, 2019

Some work on “wording” and “context” remains to be done.

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2 Comments on US, Japan Strike Trade Deal In Principle, Trump Says

G-7 Leaders Not Sold On Trump’s Idea To Invite Putin In From Cold

August 25, 2019November 18, 2021

“It was lively”.

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3 Comments on G-7 Leaders Not Sold On Trump’s Idea To Invite Putin In From Cold

Mideast Stocks Plunge As Trade Woes, Regional Conflict Bite

August 25, 2019August 25, 2019

Let’s hope this isn’t a preview of what to expect on Monday.

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oil4 Comments on Mideast Stocks Plunge As Trade Woes, Regional Conflict Bite

Trump Has ‘Second Thoughts’ About Latest Trade Escalations – Or Not

August 25, 2019August 25, 2019

“Might as well”.

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3 Comments on Trump Has ‘Second Thoughts’ About Latest Trade Escalations – Or Not

In Twilight Zone Markets, Bonds Are Stocks And Liabilities Are Assets

August 24, 2019November 19, 2020

“This has been no ordinary episode of reaching for yield by investors”, BofA’s Barnaby Martin

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Leave a Comment on In Twilight Zone Markets, Bonds Are Stocks And Liabilities Are Assets

Trump Disappoints Disciples, Cops To Faking ‘Chosen One’, Messiah Status

August 24, 2019

“They knew the TRUTH”.

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3 Comments on Trump Disappoints Disciples, Cops To Faking ‘Chosen One’, Messiah Status

US Officials Say G-7 Rigged, Focuses Too Much On ‘Niche’ Issues Like The Future Of The Planet

August 24, 2019August 24, 2019

Donald Trump is mad his “input” on climate and inequality isn’t welcome.

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8 Comments on US Officials Say G-7 Rigged, Focuses Too Much On ‘Niche’ Issues Like The Future Of The Planet

Fed Cutting Rates To Zero ‘Eminently Plausible’ After Friday’s Events, One Bank Says

August 24, 2019

If Powell’s speech rationalized a path to the lower bound, the tariff escalations “provided a shove in that direction”.

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6 Comments on Fed Cutting Rates To Zero ‘Eminently Plausible’ After Friday’s Events, One Bank Says

Trump ‘Wouldn’t Stop Him’ If Jay Powell Resigned, China Urges US Not To Miscalculate

August 24, 2019August 24, 2019

Don’t “misjudge the situation”.

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8 Comments on Trump ‘Wouldn’t Stop Him’ If Jay Powell Resigned, China Urges US Not To Miscalculate

Days After Tipping Hundreds Of Layoffs, US Steel Tips 150 More

August 23, 2019

“The exact numbers haven’t been finalized”.

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11 Comments on Days After Tipping Hundreds Of Layoffs, US Steel Tips 150 More

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Monthly Letter

  • The Arbitrageur

Recent Comments

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  • WMD on The Capex Catch-22
  • Gerard Jones on Let’s Talk Blue Waves
  • WMD on Let’s Talk Blue Waves

Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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