Final Curtain? Full Week Ahead Preview
Is this it?
Is this it?
“…the very idea that you would pay 26X EPS for the S&P 500 at the tail end of a 103 month long recovery cycle is truly ludicrous.”
“Somehow the Donald managed to say less during his 15 minutes of fame at Davos than even the swamp creatures he abhors might have offered up. But the pity of it is that the whole thrust of what he did say was dead wrong.”
“That’s right. Heisenberg reminds us this morning that we are in undisputable record territory. It has been fully 395 trading days since the market had a 5% drop, and that’s never happened before in all of recorded history.”
So when you hear conspiracy theories about upwardly revised projections with regard to Treasury supply, just know that there is no conspiracy. There is just reality. And the reality is this…
“I could go on and on. I won’t. I don’t dare. Actually most of the world’s problems would go away if men just stayed home, watched football and learned to talk to their partners during commercial breaks.”
“But last night some strange riders were spotted galloping eastward from China and Japan. While their visage may be somewhat foggy to the uninitiated, the boys and girls on Wall Street are about to discover that it’s not exactly Big Bird swooping onto their playground.”
“Bannonism just gave a thin veneer of ersatz nationalism to what was otherwise the Donald’s own dogs’ breakfast of protectionism, nativism, xenophobia, jingoism and strong-man bombast.”
“Yet there is something about Michael Wolff’s tirade that deeply resonates, albeit on the other end of the Acela Corridor. We are referring, of course, to the ‘idiots’ who are buying the S&P 500 at 2735 and earnestly debating the pros and cons of bitcoin at $16,000.”
“…we know of no melt-up that had legs of more than a few months after the point that irrational exuberance went full retard, as is happening at this very moment.”
“The prevailing wisdom is that there are two great housing bubbles out there today”…
“Felix, you had me at hello”…
Are we there yet?
And that, folks, is the week.
Oh, boy. Try to wrap your head around all of this.
It’s Friday the 13th…
“In all my years trading, I can’t recall a non-summer or non-holiday period that has been as boring as the past couple of weeks. I mean, B-O-R-I-N-G.”
After all, “shouldn’t greater uncertainty about key economic policy issues lead to a larger dispersion of likely potential outcomes for companies?”
“We would characterize existing political risks as of the run-of-the-mill variety that investors always face and a far cry from the high-stakes political events of the past several quarters (events that markets navigated with aplomb.”
“One school of thought is that they have played their cards exceptionally well this year in the FX market.”
“As always, keep one eye on left field for the “unknown unknown” that could shift the market’s thinking.”
“It’s not crazy”…
Can I borrow your double-edged sword?
“… the bears could catch up into year-end.”
There have been all sorts of labored attempts to explain how this isn’t all Trump’s fault and because nothing is ever entirely attributable to a single factor, those efforts are not totally in vain. That said….
Ok, get ready.
For now, the fiscal-chaos-can has been kicked, Harvey is behind us, and North Korea’s latest nuclear test has come and gone.
But dead ahead is Irma’s landfall in Florida, North Korea’s “founding day” (which by most accounts will be “celebrated” with an ICBM launch), and of course, more gridlock in D.C. We are, figuratively and literally, in the eye of the storm on Friday.
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