Meet Me In Sintra And Mind The Oil Slick: Full Week Ahead Preview
Ironies, cartels and trade wars.
Ironies, cartels and trade wars.
“…re-risking is likely to continue during the summer as volatility stays contained and investors increase equity positions.”
“Unanimous concern and disappointment” and deteriorating sentiment despite a bid for the periphery.
Shifting alliances, political turmoil, conspiracy theories and just the usual crazy shit.
Good luck trying to figure all of this out.
The bar is high. Or is it?
Any bids on BTPs and/or the lira?
Keep the faith?
“And this current rally likely has room to run, particularly from a returns perspective, as the current fundamental backdrop for oil is now more bullish than we had expected as strong demand now faces supply disappointments.”
“…you gotta like, stand back from it, you know”.
“And if the money velocity stops declining, and god forbid, even increases, what will happen to the mountain of monetary stimulus that has been administered over the past decade?”
Douglas Adams time.
Keep calm and take (some more) risk.
Are you short the dollar (implicitly or explicitly)?
Mnuchin isn’t worried about the supply/demand dynamics in the Treasury market despite knowing full well who is Treasury Secretary.
Remember: “Nearly every consensual macro trade has an implicit short-dollar view built-into it.”
Listen, you people are concerned about 10Y yields, and that’s fine. After all, we blew threw the February highs this week on the way to the “dreaded” 3% “pain threshold” and while there were no swarms of locusts and no Pazuzu sightings (that I’m aware of), there are still concerns that the higher we go, the closer we get to a situation characterized by “diversification desperation” or, more simply, a scenario where bonds and stocks selloff in tandem.
“Stated differently, the Orange Comb-Over is definitely not making America Great Again.”
Beleaguered banks, commodities on the come up, golf, the usual…
“Understanding the past is crucial to predicting the future. It helps us come to terms with the fact that just as Van Morrison sang “too late to stop now,†we become addicted to debt and low rates without an answer to the question – how do we stop?”
“We think it is overdone and has created opportunity for long and short term investors.”
“Typically when positions are as large as they are currently, the risk is that if the prevailing narrative of the time does not play out perfectly, violent reversals will ensue.”
“While the FBI was raiding the offices of Trump’s lawyer yesterday afternoon, the CBO published a blockbuster report evidencing the Donald’s own raiding party.”
“In the next recession, I would expect the P/E to bottom at about seven times, a lower low with earnings about 30% lower because of the recession. That would put the S&P lower than the 666 low of the previous crash, versus 2671 Thursday afternoon.”
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