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Featured

My Goodness: Amazon Spent Some Money

October 29, 2026
  • Lagarde Versus Le Pen?

    October 29, 2026October 29, 2026
  • ‘Remains Elevated’

    October 29, 2026
  • Boom!

    October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

Markets

Alphabet Whiffs, Microsoft Hits

October 28, 2026October 29, 2026
  • Mona Lisa’s Smirk

    October 28, 2026October 29, 2026
  • F-ck You, Claude (Zen)

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026
  • Around, Around We Go

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026
  • Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks

    October 26, 2026October 27, 2026

economy

Dissembling Strategery

October 28, 2026October 29, 2026
  • An ARM And A Leg

    October 28, 2026October 28, 2026
  • Frozen Bubble

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026
  • It’s All Relative

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026
  • It’s A Big Week

    October 25, 2026October 27, 2026

Geopolitics

The Tragic Irony Of The Israeli State

October 28, 2026October 29, 2026

Lula!

October 26, 2026October 27, 2026

Not Done Just Yet?

October 22, 2026October 23, 2026

Duly Noted

Not Since 1969…

October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

Mind The Control Group!

October 15, 2026October 16, 2026

How Not To Time The Market

December 27, 2021December 28, 2021

I’ve been on about so-called “concentration risk” in US equities. Everyone has. The discussion isn’t

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4 Comments on How Not To Time The Market

Run It Up

December 27, 2021December 28, 2021

Hedge fund heavyweights and industry titans of all sorts spent the better part of the

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2 Comments on Run It Up

‘We’re All Going To Get Omicron’

December 27, 2021January 7, 2022

The last week of 2021 dawned with headlines lamenting thousands of holiday flight cancelations in

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3 Comments on ‘We’re All Going To Get Omicron’

Glass Half-Full

December 26, 2021December 27, 2021

If you’re the pessimistic type when it comes to markets, 2021 wasn’t your year. Or

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4 Comments on Glass Half-Full

Vol, Liquidity And Flying Toasters (One Week To Go)

December 26, 2021December 31, 2021

The data calendar is sparse in 2021’s final week. Odds are you’ll still get an

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2 Comments on Vol, Liquidity And Flying Toasters (One Week To Go)

2021: An (Equity) Love Story

December 25, 2021January 8, 2022

2021 will be remembered for a number of things in the minds of market participants.

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4 Comments on 2021: An (Equity) Love Story

How A Biden Meme Stole Christmas. And Why It Matters

December 25, 2021December 27, 2021

Not that I expected “better” of anyone, and while acknowledging that social media algos surface

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13 Comments on How A Biden Meme Stole Christmas. And Why It Matters

China Confirms Easing Cycle With ‘Proactive’ Central Bank Pledge

December 25, 2021January 4, 2022

“In our view, the economy may need more than commitments,” SocGen’s Wei Yao and Michelle

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1 Comment on China Confirms Easing Cycle With ‘Proactive’ Central Bank Pledge

Turkey May Face ‘Nightmare’ After Wild Lira Rally

December 24, 2021December 27, 2021

“Who were these buyers?”, wondered Nureddin Nebati, Turkey’s recently installed Treasury and Finance Minister, during

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3 Comments on Turkey May Face ‘Nightmare’ After Wild Lira Rally

Waking Up So We Can Continue To Sleep

December 24, 2021December 27, 2021

Most traders and investors long ago came to accept (sometimes begrudgingly, sometimes quite happily) the

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10 Comments on Waking Up So We Can Continue To Sleep

The Politics Of Inflation

December 23, 2021January 4, 2022

Assessing the outlook for inflation is hard enough right now if you’re committed to objectivity

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4 Comments on The Politics Of Inflation

Want A New House? It’ll Cost You A Half-Million

December 23, 2021January 1, 2022

As expected, new home prices rose again in the US last month, data out Thursday

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5 Comments on Want A New House? It’ll Cost You A Half-Million

The Last Time Inflation Was This High, Jay Powell Was 29 Years Old

December 23, 2021January 1, 2022

Real personal spending was flat in the US last month, data out Thursday showed. Economists

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3 Comments on The Last Time Inflation Was This High, Jay Powell Was 29 Years Old

On ‘Omicron Optimism’

December 23, 2021December 24, 2021

Market wraps were awash with “Omicron optimism” Thursday. The body of evidence to support the

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3 Comments on On ‘Omicron Optimism’

Biden Plays Stealth Stimulus Card With Student Debt Move

December 22, 2021December 29, 2021

The Biden administration snuck some additional fiscal stimulus through the back door on Wednesday. In

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7 Comments on Biden Plays Stealth Stimulus Card With Student Debt Move

Will The ‘Absurdist’ Retail Mania Return In 2022?

December 22, 2021December 23, 2021

A defining feature of the post-pandemic market environment was greater participation on the part of

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1 Comment on Will The ‘Absurdist’ Retail Mania Return In 2022?

Are Americans Desensitized Or Just Complacent?

December 22, 2021December 24, 2021

Are Americans desensitized to ominous headlines warning of new COVID waves and soaring inflation? Perhaps,

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Leave a Comment on Are Americans Desensitized Or Just Complacent?

How Goldman’s Inflation Call Went Wrong, According To Goldman

December 22, 2021December 24, 2021

Seemingly everyone wants to claim they “got it right” on inflation in 2021. Few actually

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1 Comment on How Goldman’s Inflation Call Went Wrong, According To Goldman

Scream (Buyer And Seller Beware)

December 22, 2021December 23, 2021

The holiday lull began to set in Wednesday — finally. The arrival of Omicron and

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Leave a Comment on Scream (Buyer And Seller Beware)

Desperate Times: Erdogan’s Scheme To Avert A Bank Run

December 21, 2021January 3, 2022

“Never seen a day like this.” That’s how one EM veteran described Monday’s rollercoaster ride

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2 Comments on Desperate Times: Erdogan’s Scheme To Avert A Bank Run

Where Will You Put All That Extra Cash?

December 21, 2021December 22, 2021

Supply-demand dynamics are still “very favorable” for stocks. That’s according to Deutsche Bank, whose Parag

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4 Comments on Where Will You Put All That Extra Cash?

McElligott On Potential For ‘Squeezy’ Year-End

December 21, 2021December 22, 2021

Market participants exhibited signs of “constructive” behavior during an otherwise dour start to the holiday-shortened

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Coal Miner Canaries

December 21, 2021December 22, 2021

“T” was for “turnaround” on Tuesday. And quite possibly for “temporary” considering how erratic markets

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2 Comments on Coal Miner Canaries

‘You Can’t Stop It’

December 20, 2021December 21, 2021

Joe Biden is going to “work like hell” to get his economic plan through Congress,

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12 Comments on ‘You Can’t Stop It’

‘Wild Madness’: Erdogan Takes Lira On Insane Ride

December 20, 2021December 27, 2021

It’s at least possible that Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan has descended into a kind of

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1 Comment on ‘Wild Madness’: Erdogan Takes Lira On Insane Ride

Kid Gloves

December 20, 2021December 29, 2021

In all likelihood, more banks will follow Goldman in cutting their outlook for US growth

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9 Comments on Kid Gloves

Omicron, ‘Coal Baron’ Spark Global Selloff

December 20, 2021December 21, 2021

Global equities staged a coordinated selloff Monday as concerns about the spread of the Omicron

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4 Comments on Omicron, ‘Coal Baron’ Spark Global Selloff

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Monthly Letter

  • The Arbitrageur

Recent Comments

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  • John3D on Lagarde Versus Le Pen?
  • dayjob on My Goodness: Amazon Spent Some Money
  • FuriousA on Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks

Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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