The ‘Then What?!’ Scenario
If you’re looking for a reason to worry (and who isn’t, right?) you might consider
‘Peak Inflation’ Camp Gets Another Win
The “peak inflation” crowd scored another win Thursday. 24 hours after warmly embracing a cooler-than-expected
America The Emerging Market
It’s no secret that the last four decades haven’t been especially kind to Main Street.
Stocks Send Fed A Message: Try Harder
Neel Kashkari isn’t about to let a recession stop him from bringing inflation back down
Define Irony: Market Reaction To CPI Undermines Inflation Fight
The knee-jerk reaction across assets to a cooler-than-anticipated read on inflation in the US was
Inflation Report Is False Dawn
US inflation moderated in July, handing relief to policymakers, even as households remained beset by
Summer Blockbusters
Wednesday was inflation day in the US and July’s CPI report was poised to rescue
Dandelion Seeds
This is a pretty tough spot to be in if your job is to make
US Housing Bubble Reaches Inflection Point
US mortgage rates fell below 5% for the first time since April last week, but
Inflation Is Coming From Inside The House!
In Q1, US labor productivity plunged by the most in almost 80 years. Data for
Key Piece Of Stock Stability Puzzle Falls Tentatively Into Place
August can be an unruly beast for markets. The seasonal is daunting and liquidity is
Small Firms Haven’t Been This Worried About Inflation Since 1979
Small businesses have scarcely ever been this worried about inflation. 37% of owners who participated
Ray Dalio Imagines A US-China War
Ray Dalio has a thought experiment for you. When you get a few minutes, and
New Tech Bull Market? Surely Not
The bull is back in big-cap US tech. Or was back. And could be back
Critical ‘Nuance’ On Fed Path
In a sea of Fata Morganas, at least one trade was better than chasing ghosts.
Bears, Bulls And The People In-Between
It’s “premature to sound the all-clear,” Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson said, of US equities, which
If They’d Just Shut Up…
Fed officials need to stop talking. Or at least dial it down. Back in February,
Odysseus And The Sirens
Larry Summers is worried. About good news. Headline US inflation likely decelerated in July, which,
Buffett Buys $3.8 Billion In Stocks, Loses 10 Times That On Paper
Warren Buffett bought more stock for his hedge fund and logged a massive paper loss
Fed Risks ‘Disaster’ As Americans’ Credit Card Balances Soar
For the US economy to fall into a proper recession (as opposed to a “technical
Goldman’s 2023 Recession EPS Case Is BofA’s Base Case
“The larger risk to 2023 EPS is a recession,” Goldman’s David Kostin said, in the
The Honor’s In The Dollar, Kid
An already convoluted outlook for markets was complicated further on Friday by a jobs report
Fed Pivot Math Seen Wildly Implausible
According to one popular sell-side strategist, a string of “very hot” US economic data could
US Recovers All Jobs Lost To Pandemic
Total nonfarm employment in the US returned to pre-pandemic levels in July, hotly-anticipated government data
Careful! It Could Be A Trap
Fade it at 4,200. That’s still the mantra for some strategists convinced the nascent rebound
Delaying The Inevitable (Enigmatic Dreams Of A Better Future)
Enigmatic. That’s the best way to describe second quarter earnings season in the US, where
Chasing Ghosts: The Rally That Wasn’t There
For weeks, 4,200 on the S&P was bandied about by some top-down strategists as a
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